Labour Party VS Peoples Democratic Party
On September 15, 2022, the Anap Foundation released the results of its nationwide opinion poll on the 2023 presidential election conducted by NOI Polls Limited.
The findings of the poll tipped the candidate of the Labour Party (LP), Mr Peter Obi, to win the 2023 presidential election if the election was to be conducted in early September, while Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and Alhaji Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) would take second and third place, respectively. Behind them is Dr Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP).
Different reactions trailed the poll results from the various political camps, with some quarters critiquing the methodology.
But these predictions are not the poll’s only findings; other pertinent issues from the poll resonate with many Nigerians. According to the poll, there are five primary reasons many voters are inclined to exercise their franchise in the forthcoming election. They include the need to tackle the increasing insecurity in the country, the poor state of the economy, education, unemployment, and reducing poverty.
These issues are not necessarily new to any political discourse in Nigeria, particularly during election seasons. Since Nigeria’s return to democracy on May 29, 1999, they have formed a significant part of the plan of various candidates. For instance, the present administration rode to power in 2015 on the wave of solving some of these issues. Almost eight years later, they have remained largely unsolved.
But Nigerians are hopeful whoever emerges as the winner of the 2023 presidential election will tackle these issues.
In this first of a two parts series, Dataphyte examines the plans of the presidential candidates of the PDP and LP across these five issues — insecurity, economy, education, unemployment, and poverty, as stated in their released manifestos. In the next part, we shall examine the manifestos of two other leading candidates in the race — Bola Tinubu of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigerian Peoples Party (NNPP).
Insecurity
One of the most important issues Nigerians want to see handled by the next government is the security challenges in the country, which had become worse in recent times than in 2015 when this current administration took over power.
The candidate of the PDP recognised all the security threats bedevilling the country. However, he did not state clear strategies for addressing them. Nevertheless, he promises to increase the number of security personnel, particularly the police force, to meet the United Nations’ recommendation of a police-to-citizen ratio of 1:450. According to him, this will combat the current security challenges in the country.
Atiku also hopes to tackle the security challenges by restructuring and enhancing the funding of security agencies and retraining security personnel. Further, he hopes to employ the tool of strategic engagement with state and non-state actors in theatres of conflict. That is, using alternative approaches to resolve the conflict with insurgents.
The candidate of LP, Peter Obi, promises to deal decisively and put a permanent end to the country’s security challenges by deploying state-of-the-art military technology to combat terrorists, bandits, insurgents, and kidnappers. Part of his security plans is also to increase the number of security personnel in the country and train, fund, and equip them.
Peter Obi of the LP also promises to initiate a constitutional amendment that allows states to establish their own police to fight crime effectively. In addition, he promises to embark on reforms in the entire security sector. Also worth highlighting is his plan to ensure swift and fair prosecution of criminals, bandits, and terrorists.
Economy
The economy is an important policy issue in this election because the country’s economy has suffered a series of setbacks since 2015 when the incumbent administration was sworn into office.
As of the end of 2021, data shows that Nigeria has a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of $440.78 billion. Although this is an increase from its 2020 figure ($432.29 billion), it is lower than in 2015. Concerning the economy, Atiku promises to raise Nigeria’s GDP per capita to $5,000 by 2030.
According to World Bank data, Nigeria’s current GDP per capita is only $2,085. Dataphyte’s review of the country’s GDP per capita data from 1999 shows that the highest GDP per capita Nigeria has ever had was $3,099 in 2014.
To attain his targeted GDP plan, Atiku hopes to position the manufacturing sector to contribute 30% of Nigeria’s GDP. It is essential to state that the manufacturing sector contributed only 9% to the country’s real GDP in 2021.
Atiku also promises to make Nigeria Africa’s leading Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) destination. According to him, by 2030, his administration would increase the inflow of Nigeria’s FDI to a minimum of 2.5% of the country’s GDP.
According to the Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), FDI forms an essential part of an open and effective international economic system and is a significant factor in a country’s development.
In 2021, data from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) showed that Nigeria received an FDI inflow of $4.8 billion, the highest in West Africa, not Africa.
Still, on the economy, the PDP candidate promises to expand Nigeria’s export base, especially in manufactures, processed agricultural goods, refined petroleum, and gas products.
The economic plans of the candidate of the LP are hinged mainly on moving Nigeria from consumption to production. Thus, he promises to run a production-centred economy that is agricultural-based and export-oriented. He also promises to diversify the economy, focusing on developing manufacturing and processing technologies to maximise the country’s agricultural potential and abundant natural resources value chain.
Further, he promises to pursue and implement economic policies that drastically reduce Nigeria’s debt-servicing and debt-to-revenue ratios.
Education
The problems in the Nigerian educational sector are glaring, from the high number of out-of-school children to poor infrastructures, constant strikes, and lack of proper funding.
The candidates of the PDP and LP are fully aware of these issues, and just like past governments, they promise to address these issues if elected.
In his manifesto, the candidate of the PDP didn’t expressly state any quantitative commitment to improving education. However, he sa id he would improve and strengthen the education system to make it more efficient, accessible, qualitative, and relevant. He also promises to promote Science and Technical Education to create skills for the new economy.
The candidate of the LP acknowledges the challenges in the Nigerian educational system and notes that his administration would incorporate technical, vocational, and digital skills to transform the educational sector. He also promises to partner with state governments, private-led groups, and international partners to establish incubators to train the country’s young population on digital and technological skills. The partnership will also include access to seed funding and mentorship by industry experts.
In addition, he promises to prioritise funding of the sector and address the gaps in the law, guiding the funding access to the Universal Basic Education Commission (UBEC) and the Tertiary Education Trust Fund (TETFund).
Furthermore, concerning the number of out-of-school children estimated to be 20 million, Peter Obi promises to tackle this through his “No Child Left Behind” policy that he will introduce. However, he did not state the number of out-of-school children that will be enrolled in school through the policy.
Unemployment
Nigeria’s unemployment rate rose five-fold within a decade, from 6.4% in 2010 to 33.3% in 2020. At its current 33.3% unemployment rate, Nigeria has the second-highest unemployment rate on the global list
It is, therefore, not surprising that it is one of the issues that Nigerians want to see the candidates and eventual winner of the race addressed.
The candidate of PDP, Atiku Abubakar, promises to address the country’s increasing unemployment rate. As noted in his manifesto document, he looks to create 3 million new jobs annually, targeting to reduce the rate of unemployment and under-employment in the country to a single digit by 2025.
Using data from NBS, the current unemployment rate (i.e., unemployment plus under-employment) is 33.3%.
The candidate of the LP did not state the number of jobs he would create annually or throughout his administration. However, he acknowledged the country’s high unemployment in his manifesto and noted that through his various programmes and policies, jobs would be created and unemployment reduced.
Poverty
Nigeria is endowed with land, oil, and natural resources. Despite these vast resources, the country’s over 200 million estimated population is poor. In 2018, Nigeria surpassed India as the world’s poverty capital, with around 87 million people living in extreme poverty.
Although the current government promised to reduce the poverty rate by lifting 100 million people from poverty in 10 years, the current reality shows that the promise was not fulfilled. The latest “National Multidimensional Poverty Index” report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in November shows that 133 million Nigerians representing 63% of the population, live in multidimensional poverty.
Although the NBS report came after the candidate of the PDP manifesto was published and before the manifesto of the LP candidate was published, they recognised this menace and promised to handle it if elected.
According to Atiku, his government will lift 10 million people from poverty yearly.
On the part of the candidate of the LP, he promises to create economic opportunities that will create jobs and build capacities and capabilities across the breadth of the socioeconomic divide, enabling people to fend for themselves and escape poverty. His plans for poverty alleviation also include generating quality data on livelihoods to monitor poverty to inform policies and interventions.
While these are not all of the candidates’ plans, they are the major highlights of their plans for Nigerians across these issues.
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