Ahmadu Umaru Fintiri first took over as Acting Governor of Adamawa State in 2014 following the impeachment of Governor Murtala Hammanyero Nyako. He ruled for 86 days, and in the 2015 gubernatorial elections, Fintiri declared to contest for the governorship position under the platform of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). However, he was disqualified by the court.
After his disqualification, Fintiri returned to his private business and started preparations for the next election cycle.
On September 2, 2018, the former Acting Governor again declared his intention to contest for state Governor on the PDP platform, citing the state’s condition, which he described as embarrassing, as the motive for his interest in the governorship race.
On March 29, 2019, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) declared Ahmadu Umaru Fintiri the winner of the Adamawa state guber election, having polled 376,552 votes to defeat the incumbent Governor, Jibrilla Bindow of the All Progressives Congress, who got 336,386 votes.
Since 2019, Fintiri has managed the affairs of Adamawa state and will complete his first term by May next year. But on April 11, 2022, he openly declared his bid for a second term on the grounds that he wants to continue the developmental efforts he had achieved in his first term.
In exactly 88 days from today, the people of Adamawa state will head to the polls to decide between Fintiri and the other 14 governorship candidates vying for the highest office in the state. Before then, let us examine the performance of the Fintiri-led government across certain crucial indicators in the State, broadly covering economic performance and social policy.
GDP, IGR & Fiscal Sustainability
GDP
Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the total monetary or market value of all the finished goods and services produced in a specific country or region over time, gives information about the size of the region’s economy and how the economy is performing.
Based on available data, Adamawa state has an estimated GDP of $4.582 billion. With this, the state is ranked the 13th state with the lowest GDP in Nigeria; however, it has the third largest GDP in the North-East region. It is important to note that the GDP data used here was released in 2012, and so far has been the only year the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has published subnational GDP reports.
Although Governor Fintiri promised to improve the state’s GDP, we are unable to assess his performance on this as no data was published under his administration. However, in a recent report by BudgIT, the current GDP of the state is estimated to be N2.66 trillion, now placing it as the state with the largest GDP in the North East and the 18th largest economy among the 36 states.
IGR
Another important indicator in our assessment is the performance of the Fintiri-led administration with respect to internal revenue generation. This is crucial because a state’s internally generated revenue (IGR) demonstrates its financial strength and its ability to drive long-term economic activity, such as boosting employment and offering effective public services on the one hand. On the other hand, it shows the state’s ability to function independently without undue reliance on monthly allocation from the federation account.
Under the Fintiri-led administration, Adamawa state has seen an annual increase in its IGR, except for the decline recorded in 2020, which could be attributed to the coronavirus (COVID-19) which had an impact on the IGR of many states in Nigeria.
At the end of 2019, the state generated N9.705 billion. In 2020, the state’s IGR dropped to N8.330 billion, indicating a 14.17 percent decrease.
In 2021, the state showed recovery from the impact of COVID-19, as it recorded a 56.2 percent increase in its internal revenue. With N13.012 billion IGR in 2021, Adamawa had the 9th smallest IGR among the 36 states in the country.
Analysed on a per capita basis, Adamawa is the 10th state in Nigeria, with the smallest IGR per capita in 2021. The national average IGR per capita of N7,944 is almost three times higher than Adamawa’s IGR per capita of N2,649.
While the state has been able to increase its IGR every year (except in 2020) under Fintiri, more still needs to be done especially as data shows that the state relies heavily on FAAC disbursement for survival. For instance, IGR accounts for just 17.18 percent of the state’s total income of N180.73 billion (i.e., IGR and FAAC) in 3 years.
Every month, the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) disburses funds among Nigeria’s three tiers of government. The disbursed funds are a collection of the federal government revenue generated from tax, oil sales, and other statutory sources in the previous month.
Between 2019 and 2021, Adamawa state generated only N31.05 billion as its internal revenue, while it received N149.68 billion as FAAC disbursement. To put this in context, IGR is only 17.18 percent of the state’s total revenue (IGR plus FAAC) in 3 years, while FAAC disbursement accounted for 82.82 percent, clearly indicating that the state is heavily dependent on disbursement from the federal government. This situation is concerning, especially as it exposes the state’s annual spending plans to risks from the volatility of crude oil prices, on which a considerable chunk of federally collected revenue depends. Therefore, plans to increase the state’s internal revenue should be a major focus of the governorship candidates, as well as improving its fiscal sustainability, as the state has constantly ranked poorly in the 3 years.
FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY
This year, BudgIT assessed the fiscal sustainability of the 36 states in Nigeria using four indexes which include the ability of a state to cover its operating costs with only its IGR, its ability to cover all its operating expenses and loan repayment obligations without resorting to borrowing, its debt sustainability and the prioritisation of capital over recurrent expenditures.
Adamawa state came in 33rd place in the fiscal performance ranking, dropping from its 32nd position in the 2021 ranking. In 2020, the state ranked 33rd place out of 36 states. It is important to note that Adamawa has constantly ranked among the 5 worst-performing states with respect to their fiscal performance. The state’s 2022 ranking is particularly concerning, especially with its high loan versus IGR ratio.
In 2019, during the swearing-in of some of the state commissioners, Fintiri decried the high debt incurred by the previous administration and charged the commissioners to bring their wealth of experience and competencies on board to help clear the state’s debt.
According to the data from the Debt Management Office (DMO), at the end of 2018, Adamawa state had a total domestic debt of N89.659 billion. By December 2019, the debt had risen to N102.413 billion, indicating a 14.22 percent increase.
In 2020, the state’s domestic debt under Fintiri dropped to N98.900 billion. However, at the end of 2021, the domestic debt slightly increased by 0.65 percent to N99.547 billion, making Adamawa the state with the highest domestic debt in the North-East region and 19th highest among the 36 states.
However, the state has reduced its external (foreign) debt significantly. In 2018, Adamawa state had a total external debt of $97.790 million. In 2019 and 2020, there was an increase in the state’s external liabilities. However, at the end of 2021, the state’s external debt dropped to $80.228 million — an extraordinary 26.68 percent decrease. Nevertheless, it still ranks as the 2nd most indebted state in the North-East Region and the 19th most indebted state in Nigeria with respect to external debt.
Adamawa’s poor debt sustainability should be a major concern for all the governorship candidates and for whoever eventually emerges as the next chief executive officer of the state.
Unemployment Rate
Shortly after he was elected the governor of Adamawa state, Fintiri, assured the people of the state that he would fulfill all his campaign promises, which among others, include creating employment opportunities for the teeming unemployed persons in the state.
In 2020, the governor announced the approval of 4,000 government jobs for youths in the state, emphasizing his commitment to tackling unemployment in the State. The state’s current unemployment rate data, however, says the opposite.
Before Fintiri assumed office, Adamawa had an unemployment rate of 20.8 percent (i.e., those in the labour force who did nothing at all plus those who worked less than 20 hours in a week), according to the Q3 2018 labour force statistics released by NBS. However, the latest unemployment data (Q4 2020) published by NBS shows that the unemployment rate in the state has risen to 54.89 percent. This means that between the third quarter of 2018 and the fourth quarter of 2020, the state’s unemployment rate increased by 34.09 percent.
With its current unemployment rate, Adamawa now ranks as the second state in Nigeria with the highest unemployment rate. The governorship candidates should consider this high jump in the state’s unemployment rate, and whoever emerges as the winner should develop implementable plans to reduce the unemployment rate.
Poverty Rate
In April 2019, before he was sworn into office, Governor Fintiri assured the people of Adamawa state that his administration would focus on programmes that would uplift the poor in the state.
True to his words, he established the Adamawa State Social Support Program (ADSSSP), an empowerment programme to eradicate poverty in the state. The Fintiri-led government equally created the Adamawa State Poverty Alleviation and Wealth Creation Agency (PAWECA) to alleviate poverty in the state.
These initiatives have recorded some positive results, as the latest National Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) report released by NBS on November 18 shows that the state recorded a decrease in its poverty rate.
In 2019, NBS used an actual per capita expenditure of N137,430 per year (or N376.50 per day) to measure Nigeria’s poverty rate. According to the 2019 poverty data, Adamawa had a poverty headcount of 75.41 percent of the total population and ranked as the 5th state in Nigeria with the highest poverty headcount and the 2nd in the North-East region.
However, in the new MPI report, which measured the poverty rate on 3 dimensions — health, education, and living standards, Adamawa’s poverty rate is now 68.7 percent, a slight drop from its 75.41 percent in 2019. Among the states in the North-East region, Adamawa has the smallest share of multidimensionally poor population.
Budgetary Allocation to Key Sectors – Education, Health & Agriculture
Education and health are critical to the human development of any society. Many countries in the world see education and health as good investments for national development as the outputs are often quality human capital and a happier population.
For this reason, the United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) recommends that governments should allocate between 15 percent to 20 percent of their total public spending for each fiscal year to education. Equally, the Abuja Declaration recommends that the Nigerian government should earmark 15 percent of annual government spending to the health sector.
An analysis of Adamawa state budgetary allocation to the education and health sector in 2021 and 2022 shows that the state only met the stipulated benchmark for education once in 2021, while the budgetary allocation for health has always been below the recommended benchmark in the period under review.
The story is not different in the agriculture sector. Even though agriculture is the mainstay of an estimated 80 percent of the people in the state, and the Governor claims to have invested massively in agriculture to boost productivity, the government’s financial commitment to the sector is extremely low.
According to the 2003 Maputo declaration, governments are required to allocate at least 10 percent of their public spending to agricultural and rural development. However, a review of the state’s 2021 and 2022 budgets shows that allocation to the sector has been less than 1 percent, far below the advised 10 percent. This should be a concern for Adamawa’s governorship candidates, considering that the State has huge agricultural potential, particularly in poultry production, which is estimated to be worth $4.2 billion annually.
Number of Out-of-School Children
Before he assumed office as the Governor of Adamawa state, Fintiri promised to give attention to education in the state. Focusing on reducing the number of out-of-school in the state, the Fintiri-led administration keyed into the World Bank-funded Better Education Service Delivery for All (BESDA), an intervention programme aimed at increasing equitable access to out-of-school children, improving literacy, and strengthening accountability for basic education results.
In February this year, the Governor disclosed that in 2021, through the BESDA programme, the state reduced its number of out-of-school children in twelve local government areas by 51,205. He further noted that in the 2020/2023 academic session, over 120,400 out-of-school children would be enrolled in schools in Adamawa state across the 21 local government areas in the state.
Although no new data has been published by NBS to ascertain the current status of out-of-school children in the state, the effort taken by the governor so far is laudable as it could drastically reduce the number of out-of-school children in the state, which is put at 227,123 according to the most recent data on the number of out-of-school children in Nigeria. Whoever emerges as the state governor in 2023 would need to build on the gains recorded, especially now that UNESCO stated in its 2022 report that the number of out-of-school children in Nigeria has risen to 20 million.
Ease of Doing Business Ranking
Across the globe, one of the primary factors investors consider before choosing an investment destination is the business environment. The business climate is key in attracting local and international investment to a country or state.
On this indicator, Adamawa ranks poorly. According to the latest subnational data on the ease of doing business published by the Presidential Enabling Business Environment Council (PEBEC) in 2021, Adamawa state ranked 21 out of the 36 states and Federal Capital Territory (FCT) on the ease of doing business. The state scored 5.25 out of a total index score of 10, making it the third state in the Northeast with the most favourable business climate.
The PEBEC assessed the 36 states and FCT on four thematic areas — Infrastructure and Security, Transparency and Access to Information, Regulatory Environment, and Workforce Readiness.
Whoever wins the mandate of the Adamawa people in 2023 would need to pay attention to the four thematic areas assessed on the ease of doing business, with a clear plan to improve them.
Under-5 Mortality Rate & Access to Health
Across all health indicators, particularly under-5 mortality, Adamawa state still has a lot to do as its records are not so impressive. According to the data from NBS, the under-five mortality rate in Adamawa state is estimated at 104 deaths per 1,000 live births. Under-five mortality is the probability of a child dying before his/her fifth birthday.
Although the state has the second lowest under-5 mortality rate in the North-East region, the rate is higher than the average of 62 deaths per 1,000 live births for 13 selected Lower-Middle-Income Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. Equally, the state’s under-5 mortality rate is far from the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) target of 20 per 1,000 live births.
It is worth mentioning that the under-5 mortality rate data was published in 2018 before the assumption of this administration into the office, and data has yet to be published under the Fintiri administration. As such, it may not be an accurate representation of the current state of this particular indicator. Nevertheless, Adamawa’s governorship candidates would need to develop programmes and commit to reducing the high under-5 mortality rates in the state whilst equally improving access to healthcare, especially for children, women, and other vulnerable groups.
Subnational Audit Efficacy Index
In 2021, the Paradigm Leadership Support Initiative (PLSI) assessed the level of transparency and accountability in the management and utilization of public funds at the sub-national level using public audit and ranked them accordingly. The assessment was done on 6 criteria with a score attached.
Across the 6 criteria, Adamawa state scored 70 out of 100 and ranked 12th out of the 36 states assessed. The state’s ranking in 2021 improved from its 2020 position when it ranked 18th with a total score of 50.
In 2021, Adamawa state is ranked second in the North-East region with the lowest score. Plans to improve the score by being more transparent and accountable with its management of public finances should also be a major concern for the governorship candidates.
Open Data Compliance
The Fintiri-led government’s level of open data compliance is the last indicator we consider in this assessment, using the World Bank’s State Fiscal Transparency, Accountability, and Sustainability (SFTAS) metrics The SFTAS project is designed to incentivize open governments at the subnational level to promote transparency and accountability. It provides grants to states based on indices that include the openness of fiscal transparency and accountability data — including procurement, audit reports, budgets, and implementation of e-procurement systems, among other things.
As of the fourth quarter of 2021, 26 states in Nigeria were said to have created their own open contracting portals where they publish some contracting data to foster transparency.
Checks by Dataphyte show that Adamawa state has an open contracting portal that is active, with information posted regularly for scrutiny by the public. The state’s official website published its 2021 and 2022 budgets and budget performance reports. While on its open contracting portal, there is information on the state’s procurement.
However, the latest information on procurement was published in June 2022. This indicates some level of non-compliance on the part of the government in making its procurement data open to the public. Supplying up-to-date information on the open contracting portal should therefore be factored into candidates’ plans as it would promote transparency in the procurement process in the state.
Local Government Election
In Nigeria today, the local government, which is the closest to the people, now appears as an extension of the state government, with state governors sometimes sacking elected local government officials or outrightly refusing to conduct local government elections in their state.
While we cannot ascertain the level of independence of the local governments in Adamawa state, however, under the Fintiri administration, the state conducted its local government elections. Whoever emerges as the state’s next governor should continue with this practice but, more importantly, ensure the autonomy of the local government in the state.
Although the indicators assessed in this article are not an exhaustive list of the socioeconomic indicators in the state, they can be used to assess the performance of the Fintiri-led administration on core socioeconomic issues, as well as spotlighting pertinent areas the governorship candidates in the state need to pay attention to achieve development in the state.