In 2019, Babagana Zulum of the All Progressives Congress (APC) was declared the 4th democratically elected governor of Borno state after polling 1.17 million votes to defeat the candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), who polled only 66,115 votes.
While his journey and his time as the number one citizen in the state have not been all rosy for him owing to the number of attacks on him from insurgents and militia groups, in the first quarter of 2022, he accepted the call for a second term.
Explaining his reason for seeking reelection, Zulum stated that Borno state is still confronted with a myriad of challenges, such as unemployment, inadequate health personnel, and a high number of out-of-school children, and the passion for addressing these problems is the sole reason he is seeking a second mandate from the people of Borno state.
As the people of Borno gear up for the state governorship election scheduled for March 11, Dataphyte examines the performance of Zulum across certain socio-economic indicators and how Borno state has performed under his leadership since 2019.
GDP, IGR & Fiscal Strength
GDP
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the total monetary or market value of all the finished goods and services produced in a specific country or region over time. It gives information about the size of the region’s economy and how the economy is performing.
The most recent state GDP data published by NBS shows that Borno has a total GDP of $5.175 billion and ranks as the 19th state in Nigeria with the biggest GDP. Among the states in the North-East region, Borno has the biggest GDP. It is, however, important to state that this data was published in 2012, and no recent subnational GDP data has been published by the NBS. As such, we may not be able to accurately assess the performance of Zulum on this indicator. But the 2022 State of States report released by BudgIT last year put the current GDP of the state at N1.96 trillion, and it now ranks as the second state with the smallest GDP in the Northeast region. This drop in ranking may not be unconnected to the disturbing level of insecurity in the state which has stifled its economic growth.
IGR
A state’s Internally Generated Revenue (IGR) also provides information about its economy. A state’s level of financial stability and ability to drive sustainable economic activities, such as boosting employment and providing efficient public service, is, in fact, demonstrated in the amount of IGR it can generate. It also demonstrates the state’s capacity for independent operation without excessive reliance on monthly allocation from the federation account.
Since 2019 which marked the beginning of the Zulum administration, Borno state has recorded yearly growth in its IGR.
Before Zulum took over in 2018, Borno generated an IGR of N6.52 billion. In 2019, under Zulum’s administration, the state’s IGR increased by 25.3 per cent to N8.18 billion. The following year, the state surpassed its previous IGR despite the economic shock caused by COVID-19, which negatively impacted many states’ internal revenue in 2020. The positive gains recorded in its IGR in 2020 may not be unconnected to the plans the governor put in place in the state following the outbreak of COVID-19.
In 2021, Borno increased its IGR by 129.21 per cent and was ranked as the state with the largest IGR in the Northeast region. However, overall it was the 15th out of the 36 states with the smallest IGR.
Analysed per capita, Borno is the 11th state in Nigeria with the smallest IGR per capita. Although among its peers in the North-East region, it has the 3rd biggest IGR per capita. The state has an IGR per capita of N2,698, which is far lower than the national average of N7,944.
Although the state has shown commendable growth with respect to its internal revenue, data shows that it is still heavily reliant on federally allocated funds.
In the period under review, data shows that FAAC allocation accounted for most of the state’s total revenue (i.e., IGR plus FAAC). Between 2019 and 2021, Borno state generated only N39.72 billion as IGR, while it received N187.53 billion as FAAC. To put this in context, out of the state’s total revenue of N226.25 billion, IGR accounted for only 17.12 per cent, while FAAC made up 82.88 per cent. This shows that the state is heavily dependent on FAAC disbursement for survival.
In a previous report, Dataphyte cautioned that states’ heavy reliance on FAAC disbursement is dangerous because it exposes their annual spending plans to risks from the volatility, which is often associated with crude oil prices where a considerable chunk of federally collected revenue depends. This is also coupled with the fact that in recent times, the National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited has failed to remit funds into the federation account. Given all of these, the governorship candidates in Borno will need to explore all available options, particularly the state’s capacity in pepper and onion production, to increase the state’s internal revenue and potentially reduce its high dependence on FAAC disbursements.
Fiscal Sustainability
In the last three rankings, Borno state has dropped consistently on BudgIT fiscal sustainability ranking. In the 2022 ranking, which is the latest publication, BudgIT used four indexes which include; the ability of a state to cover its operating costs with only its IGR, its ability to cover all its operating expenses and loan repayment obligations without resorting to borrowing, its debt sustainability and the prioritisation of capital over recurrent expenditures.
In the 2022 ranking, Borno state dropped three places in the fiscal performance ranking, from 17th in 2021 to 20th in 2022. Compared to its 2020 15th position, the state dropped in its last two rankings. Despite the drop, Borno was still the best-performing state in the Northeast region in 2022.
Although Borno state ranked 6th on the 2021 debt sustainability index according to BudgIT, it may still need to be mindful of the yearly increase in its debt. According to the data from the Debt Management Office (DMO), there has been a continuous increase in the state’s domestic debt under the Zulum-led government. Likewise, its foreign obligations save for the slight drop in 2021.
At the end of 2019, the state had a domestic debt of N83.6 billion. By the end of 2021, the domestic debt has risen to N95.63 billion, indicating a 6.52 per cent increase. It is a similar trend with its foreign debt, only that in 2021, it dropped by 4.6% per cent, making it the state in Nigeria with the lowest foreign debt.
Nonetheless, its foreign debt at the end of 2021 was still higher than in 2019. Regardless of its solid debt sustainability, the next administration may need to pay attention to the gradual increase in the state’s debt.
Unemployment Rate
In 2018, Borno state was the 5th state with the highest unemployment rate in Nigeria and the highest in the North-East region. It was, therefore, not surprising that Zulum made employment one of the 10 points of his pacts with the people of Borno state.
To this end, shortly after his inauguration in 2019, he launched the Borno state online jobs portal to cater for two million applicants in the 27 council areas of the state. In 2020, he also explored option partnerships with the National Directorate of Employment (NDE) to address the state’s mass unemployment problem.
Although there are reports of several recruitments in the state under the Zulum administration, the latest unemployment data (Q4 2020) published by NBS shows an increase in the state’s unemployment rate. According to the NBS data, the unemployment rate currently stands at 43.25 per cent, up from 31.39 per cent in 2018.
With its current 43.25 per cent, Borno is the 10th state in Nigeria with the highest unemployment and the 3rd in the Northeast. It is important to point out that the drop in its unemployment ranking does not only mean the unemployment rate in the state is reduced; it is also because unemployment in other states has increased. Tackling the high unemployment rate in the state should be a top priority for the governorship candidates, especially as unemployment has been identified as a major cause of the insurgency in the state.
Poverty Rate
Poverty is one of the most profound problems being grappled with in the Northeastern part of Nigeria, particularly Borno State. In 2019, Zulum identified poverty as one of the main causes of the insurgency and security challenges facing Borno state and promised that his administration would address the problem.
Although we do not have the poverty rate data of Borno state in 2019 because it was not included in the NBS poverty headcount survey due to security challenges, the latest National Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) report released by NBS shows that 72.5 per cent of the state’s estimated 6.95 million population is living in multidimensional poverty. This means that seven of every ten persons in the state are multidimensionally poor.
Borno is the 16th state in Nigeria with the highest share of its population who are multidimensionally poor. The governorship candidates will need to take into account the high poverty rate in the state and develop strategies and policies to reduce it, as it is crucial to curbing the security challenges in the state.
Budgetary Allocation to Key Sectors – Education, Health & Agriculture
Many countries around the world view education and health as worthwhile investments for national growth. The United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) recommendation of 15 to 20 per cent of the government’s annual spending on education is indicative of the importance of education Likewise, the Abuja Declaration recommends 15 per cent of annual government spending for the health sector.
Zulum also recognises the importance of these two critical sectors. Hence, during his swearing-in ceremony in 2019, he pledged to reinvigorate the education and health of the state.
While he has matched actions with words by allocating a significant portion of the annual budget to education, much hasn’t been done with respect to budgetary allocation to health.
Using available data, the share of budgetary allocation to education has always surpassed the minimum recommended benchmark. However, for health, it has never been up to 10 per cent. Likewise, the agriculture sector. Despite the governor’s pledge to revamp the agriculture sector in the state, the financial commitment to the sector is extremely low.
According to the 2003 Maputo declaration, governments are required to allocate at least 10 per cent of their public spending to agricultural and rural development. However, a review of Borno state’s 2021 and 2022 budgets shows that allocation to the sector has been less than 4 per cent, far below the recommended 10 per cent. Considering that the state has a sizable agricultural potential, particularly in pepper, onion, and groundnut production, more financial commitment may be needed to position the state better to maximise its agricultural potential.
Number of Out-of-School Children
According to the 2018 data on the number of out-of-school children in Nigeria, 330,389 children are out of school in Borno state. Boys account for the majority of the figure, 81.67 per cent, while girls account for 18.33 per cent.
In November 2022, the state government disclosed that an estimated 1.8 million children in the state are out of school. This is not surprising, as UNESCO stated last September that the number of out-of-school children in Nigeria has risen to 20 million, up from the estimated 10 million.
Although the Zulum-led administration has enrolled a number of children in school in the state, he has described the high number of out-of-school children in the state as deeply worrisome. Whoever emerges as the state’s next governor would need to prioritise reducing the number of out-of-school children in the state.
Ease of Doing Business Ranking
One key factor investors consider while considering a location for investment is the business environment. As such, governments are expected to have policies that would attract businesses and make their states a choice destination for investment.
On the ease of doing business indicator, Borno state ranks poorly. According to the Ease of Doing Business survey conducted by the Presidential Enabling Business Environment Council (PEBEC) and published in 2021, Borno state is the 2nd state in the North-East region and 7th nationally with the least favourable investment business environment in Nigeria. Out of index scores of 10, Borno state only scored 4.64 and ranked 31st out of the 36 states and FCT in the PEBEC ease of doing business ranking.
Plans to improve the business environment should be an area of concern for the governorship candidates. The PEBEC ranking was on four thematic areas — Infrastructure and Security, Transparency and Access to Information, Regulatory Environment, and Workforce Readiness.
Under-5 Mortality Rate & Access to Health
Another important indicator to examine is the under-5 mortality in the state. Under-five mortality is the probability of a child dying before their fifth birthday.
According to the data from NBS, Borno state has an under-5 mortality rate of 86 deaths per 1,000 live births, ranking fairly above its peers in the North-East region, which have above 100 death per 1,000 live births.
It is important to state that the data used here was published in 2018 and may not accurately represent the state’s current position on this indicator. Nonetheless, the data shows that the under-5 mortality rate in the state is below the estimated national average of 132 per 1,000 live births. It is, however, higher than the average of 62 deaths per 1,000 live births for 13 selected Lower-Middle-Income Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. Likewise, the 20 per 1,000 live births target of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
Whoever emerges as the state’s next governor would need to commit to further reducing mortality rates in the state, and prioritising health in the state’s budget is one way to do that. This would include improving access to healthcare, especially for children, women, and other vulnerable groups.
Subnational Audit Efficacy Index
In 2021, the Paradigm Leadership Support Initiative (PLSI) used public audits to rank the 36 states’ management and use of public funds based on their level of accountability and openness. The evaluation was based on six categories, each with its own score.
Borno state emerged in 7th place, with a score of 75%. Compared to 2020, when the state scored only 60% and placed 13th, this is an improvement. In the North-East region, the state was ranked as 3rd best in 2021. Whoever becomes the next chief executive officer of the state would need to consolidate the gain recorded and ensure that there is more transparency and accountability management of public finances.
Open Data Compliance
Another important indicator to look at is the state’s level of open data compliance using the metrics set by the World Bank with its State Fiscal Transparency, Accountability, and Sustainability (SFTAS) project.
The SFTAS project started a year before the Zulum administration. It is essentially designed to strengthen transparency and accountability at the sub-national level. It provides grants to states based on indices that include the openness of fiscal transparency and accountability data — including procurement, audit reports, budgets, and implementation of e-procurement systems, among other things.
Borno state is one of the states that keyed into the project and created its open contracting portals, where it publishes some contracting data to foster transparency. However, Dataphyte’s check of the portal shows that the state has not been fully compliant with its obligation — up-to-date publication of its contracting details. The latest information on procurement was published on December 31, 2021. A paucity of information was also observed. This demonstrates a level of noncompliance on the side of the government in making its procurement data available to the public. Although the SFTAS project ended last year, there is a need for the next governor of the state to be open with its procurement details. This would promote transparency and accountability in the state.
Local Government Election
The last indicator to examine is the Zulum-led government’s recognition and respect for the state’s local administration as the third tier of government.
Nigeria has three tiers of government — the federal, state, and local- and they are ideally meant to function as independent entities. However, many state governors treat the local governments in their respective states as an extension of their government. In some states, the governors dismiss or dissolve the elected local government council members. While in some states, they refuse to conduct new elections for as long as months or years.
In August 2020, Borno conducted its local government council elections after it last did 13 years ago. It is important to state that the government elections were suspended for more than a decade in the state because of increased mass-casualty terror attacks by Boko Haram. All the same, under the Zulum government, Borno state has conducted its local government council elections. Whoever emerges as the winner of the March 2023 governorship election should further ensure the safety of the state to make it possible for the state to conduct subsequent local council elections. More importantly, ensure the full autonomy of the local government in the state.
While these are not the exhaustive list of the socio-economic indicators in the state, the ones highlighted in this article comprise a significant portion of essential development indices and provide the residents of Borno state some form of metrics to assess the performance of Zulum in his first term, if he has done well enough to earn their mandate for a second term. It also provides a lense through which to view the promises of other guber candidates, do they address some of these critical issues? Are their promises enough to earn them the highest seat in the land?