Dataphyte’s latest research brief titled “From Farm to Future: Thoughts on Food Security, Farmers’ Prosperity and Fiscal Stability in Nigeria” has revealed that Nigeria’s crop production has been on a steady decline in the past 2 years.
Between Q1 2020 and Q1 2022, crop production has declined by 47.2%. Crop production is the largest sub sector within the agricultural sector and currently accounts for 92.05% of the nominal growth of Nigeria’s GDP for the first quarter of 2022.
Research has shown a correlation between crop production and food inflation, both are inversely related; food inflation rises as crop production falls, vice versa. Nigeria’s food inflation rate has risen as crop production declined in the last two years.
Reasons for this decline
The declining crop production has been largely blamed on insecurity in the country ranging from Boko Haram conflict, kidnapping for ransom, farmer-herder clashes, and ethnic clashes. According to a report farmers/herder clashes have become far more deadlier and farmers have complained about their inability to go to farms.
Beyond insecurity, the inability of Nigerian farmers to adopt advanced technology and systems has also impacted the level of food output in Nigeria. Farmers use outdated methods of farming like cutlasses and hoes and local preservation of farm produce. This outdated system results in low and slow yield and also wastage of farm produce before getting to the final consumer.
Another reason for the decline in the growth of crop production in Nigeria is the lack of finance, farmers do not have access to finance to industrialize production of crops, buy fertilizers and store farm produce after cultivation. The government has created several interventions targeted at increasing the production of food both in subsistent quantities and commercial quantities among other things, an example of that is the Anchor Borrowers Program,
Why should we be worried?
The most relatable effect of the low crop production in Nigeria is the long-term decrease in availability and high prices which by implication leads to food inflation. And for farmers, especially the ones in rural settings, it may lead to a change in livelihood. Nigeria currently has 14.4 million people facing a food crisis which includes those displaced by the many security challenges across the country. Low crop production can also lead to an increase in poverty, which carries secondary problems like undernutrition and poor health.
Nigeria’s food inflation is currently peaking at 18.37% with a projection that 19.4 million more people will face food crisis and food insecurity in the near future due to the current level of food inflation in Nigeria.
The shortage in crop production also results in lower exports, thereby reducing the total export, leading to trade deficits which have a negative effect on the economic growth of the country.
Achievement of food security in Nigeria requires the creation of an enabling environment that includes better policies and a solution to the insecurity problem. These policies will include providing access to finance, promoting and increasing mechanized farming and all round optimization of the agricultural value chain.