As the 2023 election approaches, Dataphyte is chronicling the performances of state governors seeking re-election and those who will complete their second terms in May 2023.
In the series, Dataphyte examines the performance of Bauchi State Governor, Bala Mohammed, across certain crucial indicators in the state, broadly covering economic performance and social policies.
Mohammed was elected as the executive governor of the Bauchi State in 2019 and has managed the affairs of the state since then. In June 2022, he won his party’s governorship ticket, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), for a second term in office.
Mohammed and 13 others are vying for the top seat in the state. As they continue with their campaigns ahead of the March 11 governorship election, Dataphyte examines how the state has fared under the leadership of Mohammed and highlight areas all the candidates will need to prioritise in their manifestos..
GDP, IGR & fiscal sustainability
GDP
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the total monetary or market value of all the finished goods and services produced in a specific country or region over time, usually a year. It gives information about the size of the region’s economy and how it is performing.
As of 2010, Bauchi was said to have an estimated GDP of $4.713 billion and ranked as the 22nd state with the largest GDP in the country. While in the North-East, it had the second largest GDP. This was long before Bala Mohammed became the governor of the state. Since he came into office, subnational GDP data hasn’t been published. As such, we may not be able to assess his performance with respect to the state’s GDP growth.
However, BudgIT noted in its recent “State of States” report that the state currently has a total GDP of N2.63 trillion. This is approximately $6.37 billion using the 2021 average exchange rate of N412.99/$1. The state is still ranked as the 22nd state with the largest GDP and second in the North-East region.
IGR
Internally-generated revenue (IGR) is a major tool for social contracts and infrastructural development within a state. The amount of internal revenue a state generates demonstrates its financial strength and ability to function well, independent of the allocation from the federation account. Thus, the performance of Bala Mohammed on this indicator is crucial in our appraisal.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data, there has been an annual increase in the state’s IGR since 2019. From N12.29 billion in 2019, the state’s IGR grew to N17.9 billion in 2021, representing 46 percent increase. Even at the coronavirus peak in 2020, which impacted the revenue of many states in the country, Bauchi still recorded a slight increase in its IGR.
With its IGR of N17.9 billion in 2021, Bauchi generated the second highest IGR in the North-East region and 23rd nationally.
On a per capita basis, the state has the sixth smallest IGR per capita in the country and the second lowest in the North-East region. It has an IGR per capita of N2,310, which is far from the national average of N7,944.
Although the state has increased its internal revenue in the period under review, data show that FAAC disbursement made up a large chunk of its total revenue between 2019 and 2021. This shows the state’s heavy reliance on FAAC allocation for survival.
Between 2019 and 2021, Bauchi had a total combined revenue (IGR and FAAC) of N201.97 billion. Out of this amount, the state’s internal revenue accounted for just 21.41 percent, while FAAC was 78.59 percent, indicating a high level of dependence on FAAC disbursement.
According to economists, this situation is unhealthy and exposes the state to volatility risks often associated with crude oil prices, which make up a considerable chunk of federally-generated revenue.
Analysts believe that whoever emerges as the state’s next governor will need to consider exploring more revenue options to boost IGR and reduce heavy dependence on FAAC disbursement.
Fiscal sustainability
In 2022, BudgIT ranked the fiscal sustainability of 36 states of the federation using four indexes, including: ability of a state to cover its operating costs with only IGR; ability to cover all operating expenses and loan repayment obligations without borrowing; debt sustainability; and the prioritisation of capital over recurrent expenditures.
From the 2022 fiscal performance ranking, Bauchi came 22nd out of 36 states – an improvement from its 27th and 30th positions in 2021 and 2020 respectively. In the North-East region, Bauchi is the best-performing state with respect to fiscal sustainability. Nonetheless, the state may need to pay more attention to its high debt burden, even though it dropped slightly in 2021, according to experts.
According to the data from NBS, Bauchi had a total domestic debt of N97.51 billion as of December 2021, ranking as the 17th state with the highest domestic debt in the country. In the North-East region, it is the second highest. The state’s total domestic debt in 2021 was a drop from N102.82 billion in 2020.
The state reduced its foreign debt only by $455,317 in 2021 from $134.91 million in the previous year. The state’s total debt (domestic and foreign) is approximately N153.04 billion, ranking as the 16th most indebted state out of the 36. In the North-East region, it has the highest debt.
Although BudgIT’s 2022 State of States report shows that Bauchi’s debt is still within sustainable debt limit, the next administration may need to be more cautious with borrowing as the state’s performance on BudgIT’s debt sustainability index isn’t so impressive, acording to experts.
Unemployment rate
In 2018, Bauchi had an unemployment rate of 23.49 percent and ranked as the 18th state in the country with the highest number of unemployed people. It was, therefore, not surprising that tackling unemployment was one of Mohammed’s top priorities when he became governor in 2019.
Although unemployment data haven’t been published in the last two years to enable us to assess accurately how Mohammed has fared on this indicator, the unemployment data released by the NBS in 2020 showed that the state’s joblessness has worsened since 2018.
As of the end of 2020, the state’s unemployment rate (i.e., those in the labour force who did nothing at all and those who worked less than 20 hours in a week) was 34.22 percent, indicating a 10.73 percent rise in unemployment. With the rise in employment, whoever emerges as the state’s next governor would need to develop implementable plans to reduce the state’s increasing unemployment rate, according to analysts.
Poverty rate
Poverty is a major social problem in Nigeria and has been on the rise in recent years. In 2019, shortly after Bala Mohammed was elected as the governor of the state, he stated that he would reduce the poverty rate in Bauchi State.
In 2019, the NBS used an actual per capita expenditure of N137,430 per year (or N376.50 per day) to measure the poverty rate in Nigeria. Out of the 35 states assessed, Bauchi ranked 10th state with the highest poverty rate — 61.53 per cent.
In a bid to fulfill his promise of reducing poverty in the state, the governor has embarked on different poverty alleviation programmes, including the Kaura Economic Empowerment Programme (KEEP). The state keyed into other social Investment Programmes as well.
However, these initiatives have not been able to turn the tide. The recent National Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) report released by NBS in 2022, which measured poverty rate broadly on three dimensions — health, education, and living standards – shows that 73.9 percent of Bauchi’s estimated 7.75 million are living in multidimensional poverty. This indicates a 12.37 percent increase in the state’s poverty rate, as opposed to the governor’s promised reduction.
With its current 73.9 percent poverty rate, Bauchi is the 13th state in the country with the largest share of its population living in multidimensional poverty. The increase in the state’s poverty rate should be a concern for the governorship candidates, and whoever emerges should develop critical policies that would address the high poverty, experts say.
Number of out-of-school children
In 2018, data from NBS revealed that Bauchi had a total of 354,373 out-of-school children, and was the 10th state with the highest number of out of school children in the country. In 2020, Governor Bala Mohammed disclosed that the number of out-of-school children in the state was 1.4 million. Going by the number stated by the governor in 2020, the number of out-of-school children in the state jumped by 295.06 percent in two years.
While no recent data has been published by NBS to enable us to assess the impact of the various policies and plans implemented by the current governor to reduce the high number of out-of-school children in the state, the figure provided by the governor shows a need for urgent policies and interventions in addressing the menace. Whoever emerges as the state’s next governor would need to prioritise this issue and put more effort into implementing policies that will drastically reduce the number of out-of-school children, experts say.
Ease of doing business
An important factor both local and international investors consider before setting up businesses in a place is the operating environment.
As part of efforts to improve the state business environment and make it attractive to investors, the Bauchi State government under Mohammed has embarked on a number of reforms focused largely on removing encumbrances and bureaucratic bottlenecks in the state. Also, he is reported to have implemented reforms in land administration to enhance the issuance of certificates of occupancy.
While these efforts are commendable, there is, however, no recent data to assess their impact on the state’s business climate. The latest subnational ease of doing business ranking by the Presidential Enabling Business Environment Council (PEBEC) ranked the state 4th out of the 36 states and FCT on ease of doing business in 2021.
The PEBEC assessed the 36 states and FCT on four thematic areas – infrastructure and security, transparency and access to information, regulatory environment, and workforce readiness with an overall index score of 10, out of which Bauchi State scored 6.54.
Under-5 mortality rate & health access
With respect to health, the indicators, particularly the Under-5 mortality rate, are quite poor and require urgent attention.
Under-5 mortality is the probability of a child dying between birth and the fifth birthday.
According to the 2018 data from NBS, the state’s under-5 mortality rate was estimated at 147 deaths per 1,000 live births, which is higher than the national average rate of 132 per 1,000 live births. Among its peers in the North-East, the state had the third highest under-5 mortality rate in 2018. Now, it is worse.
The 2022 Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey shows that Bauchi’s under-5 mortality rate has increased to 153 against the 2018 record of 147, making it the state with the highest under-5 mortality rate in the North-East region.
Subnational audit Efficacy index
The Paradigm Leadership Support Initiative (PLSI) employed public audits to assess the 36 states’ management and utilisation of public funds in terms of accountability and transparency. PLIS used the six criteria in the table below for their assessment and ranking.
Out of a total score of 100, Bauchi scored 88 percent and emerged first place out of the 36 states in terms of management and utilisation of public funds . In the 2020 ranking, the state was also the best-performing, with a total score of 70 percent. Beyond the state maintaining its leading position, it also increased its score in the 2021 ranking. Whoever emerges as the state’s next governor will need to maintain this practice and ensure there is more transparency and accountability in the state, particularly in its management of public finances, according to experts.
Open data compliance
Also, key in our assessment of the Bala-led government is the state’s level of open data compliance, using the World Bank’s State Fiscal Transparency, Accountability, and Sustainability (SFTAS) metrics.
The SFTAS project commenced in 2018 and was designed to strengthen transparency and accountability at the sub-national level. The project provided grants to states based on indices that included openness of fiscal transparency and accountability data — including procurement, audit reports, budgets, and implementation of e-procurement systems, among other things.
While the Bauchi State government keyed into the project and created its open contracting portal, a check on the portal showed very limited information was published. It was also observed the publication of the information was inconsistent. The last procurement details the state published was on December 30, 2020. This indicates that the state was not entirely compliant in making its procurement data available to the public for scrutiny.
Although the SFTAS project ended in 2022, experts say there is a need for the next administration to ensure there is openness in its procurement, which includes providing up-to-date information to the public.
Local government election
There are three tiers of government in Nigeria — federal, state, and local governments. These three levels of government are meant to function independently. However, the local government, which is the closest to the people at the grassroots, now appears as an extension of the state government, with state governors exercising undue influence over them. For instance, some state governors have been reported to have dismissed or dissolved elected local government council members in recent times. In other cases, there have been reports of outright refusal to conduct new elections for months or years.
In recent times, there has been an intense push for the autonomy of local government. However, there has been pushback from some state governors on this. Just last month, state houses of assemblies across the country rejected the constitutional amendment bills seeking financial and administrative autonomy to local government councils in the country.
Although we cannot ascertain the level of independence of the local governments in Bauchi State, in 2020, under the Bala Mohammed administration, the state conducted its local government council elections.
“It is important for state governors to know that they are being watched. Most of the times, our interest is at the centre but state governors have a role to play in making anything being done at the federal level meaningful,” said a publi affairs analyst, Frank Umediora.
“If state governors are playing their part, you will see that most of the issues around poverty, out-of-school children and unemployment will be reduced,” he added.