Below 50% voter turnout expected as Imo people head to polls in November

Following the timetable set by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), the people of Imo State in the South-East will elect their next governor on November 11, 2023. 

A total of 2.42 million persons are expected to vote in the upcoming election per the registered voters in the state. However, it is unlikely that up to 50% of these individuals will actually turn out to vote on election day. This is due to the historically low level of participation witnessed in previous governorship elections in the state, particularly the last three.

Elections serve as a platform for individuals to choose the leaders who will govern the state for a specific period. In Nigeria, it is a four year-period. 

So far, in Imo State, 6 governorship elections have been conducted, with the 7th scheduled for November 11, less than 5 months away. 

Out of the five individuals who have held the position of governor in the state, with the exception of Emeka Ihedioha and the current governor, Hope Uzodinma, only one person served a single term. The remaining two governors, Achike Udenwa and Rochas Okorocha, each served two terms.

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Emeka Ihedioha, the candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) who emerged as the winner of the 2019 election, was in office for only about 8 months before the Supreme Court nullified his election. In his stead, the court declared Hope Uzodinma, the candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), who came fourth in the race, the winner. 

Now, Hope Uzodinma, the state’s current governor, is contesting for his second term in the November 11 election.

Sixteen other candidates are also vying for the number one seat in the state in the election scheduled for November 11. Notably, none of the candidates participating in the election is female, indicating that the Imo November 11 poll is exclusively contested by male candidates.

Also, among the 17 male candidates, only two have selected female running mates. These candidates are Hope Uzodinma of the APC and Nwoga Steve of the Action Democratic Party (ADP). Additionally, it is worth noting that among the 17 candidates, only one is a person living with disabilities (PWD), the Labour Party (LP) governorship candidate.

The youngest of the 17 candidates is Iwuanyanwu Isaac of the Boot Party (BP). He is 35 years of age. Hope Uzodinma and Achonu Nneji of the APC and Labour Party (LP), respectively, are the oldest in the race. They are both 64 years of age.

In the past governorship elections, mainly the last three, the voter turnout has been consistently below 50%. That is, the percentage of the registered voters who cast their vote on the election day.

Data gleaned by Dataphyte shows that in the 2011 guber election, there were 1.69 million registered voters in Imo State. However, on election day, 750,964 persons turned out to cast their votes. This represents 45% voter turnout. 

In the subsequent election held in 2015, the number of registered voters increased to 1.75 million. However, the voter turnout was 46%, showing a slight increase compared to the previous election. 

Moving on to the 2019 election, although registered voters increased to 2.22 million, the voter turnout dropped significantly to 37%.

In addition to the consistently low voter turnout in previous elections, there is growing concern that the upcoming election may experience an even lower turnout. This pessimism is due to the general decline in voter turnout across Nigeria in recent years, resulting in resource wastage.

Also, it is worth noting that the three off-cycle elections conducted between 2021 and 2022 experienced a significant decline in voter turnout compared to the previous elections. 

For instance, in Anambra State, only 10.38% of the registered voters voted in the November 2021 election.

In 2022, INEC also conducted two off-cycle elections — Ekiti and Osun States. 

In Ekiti, the voter turnout was just 36.5%, the worst the state has recorded since 2003.

The story wasn’t different in Osun State, which also had its governorship election in 2022. The voter turnout was only 42%, a decline from its previous election in 2018. 

While these trends suggest that there may be a low turnout in the upcoming election in Imo State, active civic education and reassurance from the electoral body regarding the conduct of free and fair elections, as well as the government’s commitment to ensuring the safety of voters may improve voter participation in the state. 

These interventions are essential because a lack of trust in the electoral system and concerns about violence contributed to the low voter turnout observed in previous elections in Nigeria.