What is the Effect of Climate Change on Local Rice Production in Nigeria?

Daniel Adaji

In September 2020, a devastating flood swept through Kebbi State, renowned for rice production, and left hundreds of farmers in tears. The flood washed away rice farms in 11 local government areas of Argungu, Birnin Kebbi, Bunza, Suru, Koko-Besse, Yauri, Shanga, Bagudo, Maiyama, Jega, and Dandi. 

Climate change, through extreme, frequent flooding and increased salt level in the water supply used for irrigation, has become a common subject of global debate. The impact of climate change and global warming is considerable in Nigeria and agricultural production activities are generally more threatened than other sectors. In recent years, especially in 2020, many farms, especially rice farms were destroyed in Nigeria due to flooding and drought, both of which are effects of climate change.

In a special report on the devastation, an elderly farmer, Alhaji Aliyu Soda, was lamenting thus: “The massive rice production in the state has really been instrumental to the rice revolution in Nigeria. Sadly, however, the massive rice production in the state is under threat as a result of the recent devastating flood recorded in the state.”

The 2020 flood cost Kebbi State an estimated N5 billion loss, according to Kebbi State Emergency Management Agency (SEMA). The Chairman of Kebbi SEMA, Sani Dododo, acknowledged that the weather forecast organisation, Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) warned that 102 local governments across Nigeria would be affected by the flood. However, Kebbi did not anticipate the level of devastation. 

Dododo said “the flood submerged more than 450,000 hectares of rice plantation in the lowland…[and] over 50,000 hectares of millet, sorghum, maize and sugarcane were also destroyed on the highlands. When you combine the two areas, you will arrive at about 500,000 hectares destroyed by flood this year and rice farmers are the worst hit. This is because rice constitutes about 90 percent of the total plantation, the remaining crops stood at only 10 percent.”

A farmer, Flight Sergeant Odunsi Rotimi (Rtd) and president of a rice union, which is composed of two farmer cooperatives (Good Success and Farm Mate Multipurpose Agricultural Cooperative), with membership in Ogun and Lagos states respectively, spoke about their predicaments. 

“The losses recorded in the last two years were enormous,” Rotimi said. In fact, we lost our entire investment (100%) to both flood and drought, and the majority of our farmers are discouraged and are not willing to go back and re-invest in the subsequent seasons.” 

Rotimi further stated that since they were beneficiaries of the Federal Government’s Rice Anchor Borrowers’ Scheme, their farm activities were strictly monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture, which directed them to plant at a specified planting date. That was in  May, unlike their counterparts in the Republic of Benin who started land preparation at the first rain and planted at the second rain. The wrong planting period, coupled with the failed rainfall forecast was costly to members of the agricultural cooperative body. 

He explained: “Because of the fluctuation in the rainfall pattern, the specified farming date did not work for us. The rainfall pattern was not regular and when we planted it got to a time when rainfall ceased. We lost a part of the farm to drought and when the rain started again, it was so heavy within the season that our entire farm became flooded. We lost the entire rice field of about 10 hectares.”

Rotimi solicited the government and relevant agencies to help with accurate weather forecasts so as to help them carry out their farm activities with minimal risks.

Another farmer, Akolo Emmanuel, in Lafia, Nasarawa State, lamented how he lost two hectares of his rice farm to flooding and one hectare to drought. 

He said, “All the rice I planted on the field last year was supposed to germinate, but the partial drought set in and I lost a part of the farm to drought and another part of the farm, which survived the drought, was lost to flood last year.”

Rising Temperatures and the Unpredictability of Weather

Recent research is showing that Climate change will not only affect the severity of weather conditions but also make it much harder to predict weather.

For Nigeria, where agriculture is still largely rain-fed and planting seasons are derived from predictable weather behaviour, this is a very major challenge.

The mean average temperature in the country has been increasing since the year 2000, peaking in 2010 at 27.81 ^oC. Although the temperature dropped in subsequent years, a significant increase was observed in 2016 (27.73 ^oC), making it the second-highest year within the ten-year period considered. 

Lagos state in South West Nigeria saw a 17-hour heavy downpour of rain causing severe flooding in 2010, according to the International Federation of Red Cross (IFRC). 

The National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) reported that as many as 50,000 Nigerians were displaced by flood in 2010. 

Rainfall was low in 2000 at 1125.89mm but the country witnessed a sudden increase in 2003, and it has been fluctuating between the years until 2011 when it again peaked at 1027.37mm. Rainfall increased again in 2019 and then dropped in the following year.

For rice farmers in Nigeria, the irregularity and unpredictability of the weather means significant disruptions to their business. And the impact is reflected in the fall in yield per hectare despite increased focus on rice farming in the country.

Outside of Kebbi and Lagos, states like Bauchi, Kogi, Edo and Kwara States suffered the devastating effects of droughts and floods, which wiped out their investments in rice farming last year.  

Farmers in the Bogoro Local Government Area of Bauchi State counted their losses as a result of the flood that destroyed  some bridges and about 150 hectares of rice farmlands in their villages.  

Ibaji, in Kogi State, believed to be the most productive council in terms of rice production was affected by flood; in Edo state, hectares of farmlands were destroyed in Udaba, Ufukpo, Agbaburu, Ukpeko, Ugochi; in Kwara state, several farms were also destroyed in Shonga, Edu and Patigi local government areas; in Adamawa, over 5,000 farms were affected.

The devastation is causing anxiety among farmers and stakeholders in the rice value chain, leading to the fear of food scarcity or food insecurity in Nigeria. Food prices have continued to increase. In the case of rice, in spite of the intervention by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) through its Anchor Borrowers’ Scheme (ABS), local rice production has not brought down the price of this staple food, and the devastations occasioned by climate change are likely complicit.

In 2016 when the ABS was introduced, a 50kg bag of rice cost N13,000, but as of April 2022, it had jumped to N26,000. The devastation of flooding and droughts alongside the insecurity in the country’s rice production belt play a part in the rise in costs.

Mr. Obasanju Daniel, an expert in Geology and climate change, and a lecturer in the Department of Earth Science, Kogi State University, Anyigba, Kogi State, said that deforestation drives climate change when forests, which are supposed to serve as a carbon sink, are depleted. Consequently, greenhouse gases cause the trapping of heat that should have escaped to outer space, thereby causing the warming of the earth. The warming of the earth in turn increases the risk of drought.

He explained further the impact of rising temperatures, ”Glacial melt during the heating process turns into liquid water which finds its path into the oceans and seas leading to increase in water and sea levels, causing flooding when it rains”. He posited that human activities such as deforestation and release of gases by industries are a major cause of climate change.”

According to the scholar,  the main step that must be taken to address this situation is for Nigerians to vigorously pursue afforestation. “We must deliberately embrace tree planting to address the menace of climate change. Let Nigeria take a cue from Dubai, a coastal region that has been able to curb the problem of flooding through intensive tree planting.”  Daniel said further that the use of clean energy, not depending on fossil fuels, could help to control climate change and mitigate the losses rice farmers experience due to climate change.

This report was produced under the Dataphyte Data and Development Reporting Fellowship 2022.