The updated implementation guidelines for extension of lockdown has revealed a structured return to the “normal” Nigerian life. Although there are still public restriction measures, the Presidential Task Force on COVID-19 has sagged key measures regarding business resumption. The new guidelines establish new protocols on education, transportation, banking, manufacturing, civil service, and the hospitality industry.
Key points of the new guidelines include the resumption of air and interstate travels, resumption of banking, and resumption of students in graduating classes. Each of these guidelines is to operate under a variety of public safety measures.
Potentially, the new guidelines will improve the situation with Nigeria’s staggering economy. It should stimulate more intensive business activities and improve business and household income. In addition, reopening of manufacturing should boost production and improve income flows.
Resumption of air and interstate travels should also improve the distribution and efficiency of the supply chain for businesses. On a general note, the new guidelines allow for a reasonable return of Nigeria’s economic life.
While the new guidelines are positive in some dimensions, they may compromise public safety across the country. For instance, resumption of interstate travels directly imply that the whole nation will once again become knitted as an inseparable block. As people and commodities move around, there are high chances of transmission and spread of coronavirus on a national scale. Thus, areas that have since recorded fewer cases of the virus may begin to record more cases.
Nigeria’s COVID-19 Numbers
Currently, a total of 25,694 COVID-19 cases have been reported in Nigeria. Of these 15,358 are active patients while 9,746 patients have been discharged. 590 deaths have been documented officially. From this data sourced from the Nigerian Centre for Disease Control, 60 percent of the total cases are still active and recovery rate is still less than 40 percent. Also, documented COVID-29 death is about 2.3 percent for Nigeria.
Although the numbers appear somewhat low relative to the population size, the growth trend is worrisome. As at the beginning of March, only one case was recorded with no death. In the space of a month, by April 1st, cases had increased to 174 and two deaths had been recorded. Despite lockdown measures which were introduced on the 30th of March, cases increased to 2,170 by May 1st and the virus had claimed 69 people.
As of 1st June, the number had increased to 10,578 cases and 299 deaths. By the end of June, 25,694 cases had been documented and deaths had increased to 590. The trend has continued to show exponential growth in number. Without significant changes in the toll of events, the number of cases has been projected to reach a peak of 240,000 in December. This trend continues to raise questions on Nigeria’s move towards business resumption.
Table Showing COVID-19 Trend in Nigeria
| Date | Total Cases | Active Cases | Deaths |
| March 3rd | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| April 1st | 174 | 163 | 2 |
| May 1st | 2,170 | 1,751 | 69 |
| June 1st | 10,578 | 7,157 | 299 |
| June 30th | 25,694 | 15,358 | 590 |
Crossroads
Across the world, there are indications that restriction measures are not sustainable for a long time. Closing of economies has resulted in economic distortion and imbalances. While businesses have been hit by restriction measures, the vulnerable are the hardest hit of the pandemic and the associated restriction measures.
In Nigeria, immediate impacts of the imposed restrictions and lockdown are food insecurity and increase in economic vulnerability especially for low-income households. Small-scale entrepreneurs have also been badly hit by restriction measures. The grim outlook has been worsened by poor planning, unclear directives, and budget constraints. Thus, governments across the country have been urged to ease lockdown measures.
Gradually, the Nigerian government has been easing lockdown measures. Businesses are slowly restarting, and the economy is gradually recalibrating for a restart. However, economic resumption comes at a huge price. Direct public safety risks have been predicted to accompany economic resumption.
Impliedly, Nigeria is at a crossroad. With the recent guidelines, it appears that the country has chosen to prioritize its economy over public safety. According to Henry Adigun, Nigeria has simply run out of ideas. According to the senior economic analyst who also is an oil and gas expert, Nigeria rushed into economic closure without a clear-cut plan or strategy.
Nigeria’s response and restriction measures were modelled after those of western countries. They were not marched with the intrinsic details of Nigeria’s economy and operational matrix. In addition, the country failed to optimize on the restrictions. Neither was testing expanded nor was a strategy developed. Hence, the Nigerian response could not sufficiently address the real issues.
However, Henry Adigun commended the effort to reopen the economy. He stated that although there would be consequences, it was necessary to reopen the economy at such a time. But economic resumption would result in a spike and possibly, more deaths. Citizens can at best adopt personal safety measures and follow recommended guidelines.