On May 1st, 2020, the Nigeria Centre For Disease Control (NCDC) announced that confirmed cases of coronavirus have reached 2,170, with 351 recoveries and 68 deaths. The new figure is in line with Dataphyte’s predictive analysis that COVID-19 cases would reach 1,885 by May.
The analysis based its prediction on the COVID-19 Nigeria real-time monitoring and evaluation platform. Cloneshouse Nigeria developed the platform was in collaboration with Dataphyte. The prediction used the country’s 184 coronavirus cases a month after the first index in Lagos.
The data insight is a periodic publication by Cloneshouse Nigeria’s Center for Learning, Evaluation, and Monitoring and Dataphyte as part of the COVID-19 Nigeria Map deployment for evaluators and data journalists.
How We Predicted
Our analyst used a 95% prediction interval, given all conditions are still the same. Using Tableau, a data science tool, we estimated that the number of cases in Nigeria would have reached 1,885 come May. The forecast used the average mean of history to assume what would happen in the future.
While this method may be reproduced, it may no longer be reliable for another forecast of the pandemic. This is due to certain variables that have set in. This includes the number of tests done and the degree of human contacts.
Coronavirus Cases Still 0.1% of The Nigerian Population
Nigeria has 2,170 confirmed cases as of May 1st, 2020, the number is just 0.1% out of the country’s population. With more than 40,500 cases in Africa, Nigeria takes a share of 5% as at the same period
The breakdown of the cases showed that Lagos has more than 1000 confirmed cases, followed by Kano with 311 cases, FCT with 214 cases, and Gombe state with 92 cases. Borno and Bauchi states have 69 and 56 cases, respectively. Other states have less than 50 cases.
Nigeria Eases Lockdown Order
On Monday, May 4, 2020, some businesses will resume operations, while others will continue skeletal operations. President Muhammadu Buhari had said the lifting of lockdown will be in phases as economic hardship takes a toll on citizens. The government placed Abuja, Lagos, and Ogun states on 5 weeks lockdown to curb the spread of coronavirus.
In its last situation report released on April 28, the World Bank Africa Region called on seven countries (South Africa, Algeria, Cameroon, Ghana, Nigeria, Guinea, and Côte d’Ivoire) with high cases to reinforce mitigation measures to reduce morbidity and mortality, maintain essential health services, and minimize the disruption of public services and economic activities.