Since the first case of Coronavirus (COVID-19) was reported in Lagos on February 27, twelve more states have reported cases in Nigeria. As shown in the visualization below, Cloneshouse and Dataphyte analysed the number of cases in the states over time. Based on a 95% prediction interval, by May 2020, with all current conditions still the same, we estimate the number of cases in Nigeria could reach 1,885.
The data used for the analysis was collected from the COVID-19 Nigeria real-time monitoring and evaluation platform.
Within this reporting period, Lagos has the highest number of cases at 98. The total number of COVID 19 case stands at 184. 20 persons discharged and 2 deaths reported, as of April 2, 2020. In a months time, how many cases of COVID-19 should Nigeria expect? Currently using source data from February 27 and April 1, 2020, we did a predictive analysis through May 1, 2020. At a 95% prediction interval, by May 1, 2020, with all current conditions still the same, we estimate that the number of cases in Nigeria would have reached 1,885. Between April 3 and May 1, 2020, 1,701 more cases would have been reported and more than fifty cases will be reported from mid-April. (Kindly roll over the line chart below to reveal the number of cases per day).
With an estimated population of 200 million, 184 cases one month after the index case is questionable. Perhaps, certain in-country factors are contributing to the low number of cases. The most obvious could be that Nigeria does not have the resources to test its citizens. For example, testing of suspected or likely cases during this reporting period has not exceeded 400.
Among eight countries that announced their first case of Coronavirus on February 27, Nigeria has the least number of cases as at April 2, except for the sovereign – city-state of Monaco. Notwithstanding that Nigeria has the largest population in relation to these other countries.
New Zealand, with a population the size of Abuja – 4.7 million has conducted 26,000 tests and has 797 cases. Lithuania with a population the size of Ekiti state – 2.7 million, has conducted 15,000 tests and has 649 cases. Mexico, with a population of 129 million has the largest number of cases among the 8 countries – with 1,510 cases as of April 2, 2020.