The first census in Nigeria since 2006 is scheduled to take place between March 29 and April 2 in all the 774 local government areas. A digitally assisted mobile handheld device that requires human interaction will be used for the 2023 census, according to the National Population Commission (NPC).
Information on the structures, residences, and people in the enumeration region will be collected using electronic forms hosted on personal digital assistant devices, the NPC said.
Even though digital devices will be used, people are still required to run and supervise them.
According to the NPC, personnel will be sent out to carry out this procedure in all regions of Nigeria, including areas with high levels of insecurity.
Nigeria’s security system has changed since 2006, and the level of insecurity has increased over time, raising concerns about how the census will happen in several crises-ridden communities and how problems with counting internally-displaced persons will be resolved.
Overview of Nigeria’s Insecurity
Over the last 10 years, Nigerians have experienced a number of security crises, including Boko Haram attacks, farmer-herder conflicts, kidnapping for ransom, militant organisations in the Niger Delta as well as pro-Biafran and Yoruba agitation disturbances.
Over 70,000 people died due to insecurity in Nigeria between 2012 and 2020. Since 2011, Boko Haram’s insurgency has claimed 37,500 lives and caused 2.5 million displaced people and 244,000 migrants. Farmers and herders have severally clashed, displacing 300,000 people and claiming 10,000 lives in just two years. Nigeria also has one of the worst ransom-based abduction rates in the world, with 685 kidnappings reported in the first quarter of 2019. Nigerians paid about $18.34 million as ransom between June 2011 and March 2020.
It was also stated that 10,400 people died in 2021, which is thought to be the highest number of fatalities since Nigerian insecurity first surfaced.
Militancy has resulted in kidnappings, bloodshed, and economic disruption in Nigeria’s Niger Delta.
States like Borno and Kaduna, where millions of people have been displaced, have been hardest hit by insecurity, and it is unclear whether these people will be included in the process as residents of their camps or their new locations.
Home of terror
Nigeria is now the sixth-highest terrorism-prone nation in the world, according to the Global Terrorism Index. This has grown over the past 10 years.
A civil servant and resident of Kaduna, Grace Ndibami, expressed her concerns about the 2023 census and noted that some areas might not be counted.
She provided an example of some areas where curfews were in effect. She also mentioned that some villagers had fled to other locations or IDP camps during attacks for safety and would not return in most instances..
Ndibami brought up a recent incident that resulted in a curfew in four communities in the Zango-Kataf Local Government Area.
“The census is only a few weeks away, and insecurity in some areas is still really high. People need peace before thinking of census,” she said, expressing concern about how things might pan out before the census.
A United Kingdom-based economist, Odili Omenyili told Dataphyte that apart from the activities of terrorists and insurgents, people who did not agree with the government could easily attack enumerators.
“The government needs to provide security for enumerators. Those who are unhappy with the recent elections could attack them or even hold them captive,” he said.
Why census is important
Census data are needed for budget creation; social, economic, and infrastructure development; planning, as well as governmental performance monitoring, according to economists.
The population census also affects economic planning, political representation in the House of Representatives, and state sharing formula.
Ideally, a population census is expected to be conducted every 10 years in Nigeria, but this has not exactly happened.
During this period, the government can accurately track the population’s structure and mobility changes. In Nigeria, where there is a serious lack of credibility and inequality, censuses are especially important.
NPC not bothered by insecurity
However, the National Population Commission (NPC) is not bothered. The Director of Public Affairs for the NPC, Isiaka Yahaya, noted that the NPC wouldn’t have many issues with insecurity. He explained that most of the enumerators would be sourced from the localities where these counting processes would be carried out, implying that they would be able to navigate the security situation.
He assured that the NPC had never lost any personnel or experienced any security issues in the activities it carried out in the past, noting that the agency was working hand in hand with traditional rulers to ensure a seamless enumeration process.
He reassured Dataphyte that every area would be covered by the enumeration procedure, insisting that these areas were still inhabited and activities were still being carried out. He also responded to the questions about internally displaced people, stating that a census would count individuals according to the area where they were based. The enumeration procedure also involves inquiries about the individuals’ previous residences, he said.