There are strong indications that Telecoms contribution to Gross domestic Product in the last quarter of the year 2021 (Q4) will be more than 12.45%.
The sector’s contributions to GDP have been consistently high, with its highest contributions often happening in the second quarter (Q2).
The sector has three major players in Nigeria and is controlled by the Nigeria Communications Commission (NCC). This is a function empowered by Section 89 of the NCC Act of 2003. Thus, the commission monitors and controls the industry’s players’ activities.
Production output from this sector shows that the contribution to the GDP increases in the second quarter over that of the first quarter. After that, it declines in the third quarter before increasing again in the fourth quarter.
In 2015, the sector contributed 8.3% to the nation’s GDP in the first quarter. This was followed by a 9.37% contribution in the second quarter and a drop to 7.61% in the third quarter. However, it picked up in the fourth quarter to 8.78%, lower than the second quarter’s contribution.
Likewise, this was the case in 2016 with a percentage contribution of 8.75%, 9.72%, 7.86%, and 8.98% in the first, second, third, and fourth quarters respectively.
The telecommunications contribution continued with this trend all through 2017 to 2020. 2020 data shows a 10.88% in the first quarter, 14.3% in the second quarter, 11.20% in the third, and 12.45% in the fourth quarter.
In 2021, the first quarter contribution was 11.66%, while that of the second and third quarters was 14.42% and 11.94%, respectively.
Thus, following the observed trend, the sector’s contribution in the fourth quarter of 2021 will probably be greater than 11.94% in the fourth quarter.
Also, a keen review of the sector’s contribution shows an improvement in its year on year quarterly contribution. Each subsequent quarter has outperformed its previous year’s contributions. Except for Q2 to Q4 2017, where contribution dropped in each quarter compared to the same period in 2016.
The first quarter contributions of the telecommunication sector to the GDP in 2015 was 8.3%. It increased to 8.75% in 2016, then 9.19% in 2017. The 2018 figure stayed at 9.19% before rising to 10.11% in 2019, 10.88% in 2020, and 11.66% in 2021.
The movement in the second quarter was 9.37% in 2015, 9.72% in 2016, then a drop to 9.47% in 2017. In 2018, it increased to 10.43%, then it got to 11.39% in 2019 and 14.3% in 2020 before closing high at 14.42% in 2021.
Likewise, the third and fourth quarters show the same trend. For the third quarter, the contribution from 2015 to 2021 is 7.61% for 2015, 7.86% in 2016, 7.43% in 2017, 8.39% in 2018, 9.2% in 2019, 11.2% in 2020 and 11.94% in 2021.
The fourth-quarter contribution to GDP over the years followed a similar pattern. In 2015, it was 8.78%, then it increased to 8.98% in 2016 and dropped to 8.65% in 2017. After that, it increased for the subsequent years as 2018 witnessed a 9.85% contribution, 2019, 10.85%, and 2020 12.45%.
The telecommunication sector’s contribution is expected to increase in the fourth quarter of 2021 and is expected to increase by a value greater than 12.45%, the Q4 contribution to GDP in 2020.