On April 12, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) released the final list of candidates for the Osun state 2022 Governorship election. In this year’s contest, there are 15 candidates; all male. As a series of failed promises continue to cripple citizens’ faith in the political system, bringing issue-based voting to the forefront of voter education ahead of the Osun guber polls becomes crucial. In this article, Dataphyte examines 6 important socio-economic indicators that these 15 candidates could include in their manifestos in order to achieve meaningful development in the state.
GDP, IGR & Fiscal Strength
The last Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows that Osun state has a total GDP of $7.3 billion. This places it among the 14 states in Nigeria with the highest GDP. It is however the second-lowest in the South-West region, only ahead of Ekiti state.
In the first half of 2021, according to NBS data, the Internally Generated Revenue (IGR) of Osun state stood at N13.67 billion, placing it among the top 16 states with the highest IGR in the first 6 months of 2021.
Data shows that the state has experienced continuous annual growth in its IGR from 2016 to 2020 except in 2018 when it dipped. The IGR grew from N8.88 billion in 2016 to N19.67 billion in 2020. It is worth mentioning that since the current administration assumed office, the state’s IGR has increased by 9.77% (2019-2020).
While such growth is commendable, data from NBS shows that the state still relies heavily on the statutory allocations from the federal government to meet its expenditure obligation, even though those allocations have been declining since 2018.
Also, when the state’s IGR is analysed on a per capita basis, it is relatively low compared to its peers. According to BudgIT, in 2021, Osun state’s IGR per capita stood at N3,678, which falls below the national average of N4,616. Osun state has the second-lowest IGR per capita in the South-West region and 19th nationally.
On fiscal sustainability, Osun state improved in the latest BudgIT report which examined Nigeria’s 36 states’ fiscal performance using several indicators. The report used 4 indexes: the ability of states to meet their operating expenses; the ability to meet operating expenses and loan repayment without having to borrow; fiscal power to borrow more given low debt burden vis-à-vis how much is generated in a year and, prioritisation of capital over recurrent expenditures.
In the report, at the end of 2020, Osun state had a total debt of N192.82 billion; an increase of N89.02% from the 102.01 billion in 2016. The state was also ranked 31st out of 36 states for its fiscal performance in the year 2020. However, in the 2021 ranking, the state came 13th place out of the 36 states, indicating an improvement in its fiscal sustainability. However, there’s still work to be done in this regard as the loan versus IGR ratio is still high.
Under the Gboyega Oyetola-led administration, the state’s debt increased by 11.41% between 2019-2020, making Osun the 7th most indebted state in Nigeria.
Whoever is elected as the next governor of the state will have to give serious attention to the state’s debt burden vis a vis fiscal sustainability and put in place strategies to boost the state’s IGR and reduce its heavy dependence on statutory allocations from the federal government in order to meet its expenditure obligation.
Unemployment rate
During his inaugural address in 2018, the current Governor, Gboyega Oyetola said he would create at least 30,000 jobs in Osun state.
“We, in partnership with private sectors, will establish large manufacturing industries in the major sectors of the economy to create at least 30,000 jobs”, Oyetola said.
Although Osun state has the fourth lowest unemployment rate in the country and the second-lowest in the South-West region, it appears the incumbent Governor did not fulfil his promise of creating at least 30,000 jobs— as the latest labour force statistics by NBS show an increase in the state’s unemployment rate. Before the current administration came on board, in 2017 the unemployment rate in Osun was 19%. In 2018, the figures increased to 24.7%, then to its current 37.3%. This shows an upward trend in the unemployment rate. In fact, within three years, the unemployment rate in the state has increased by 96.47%.
Strategies to reduce unemployment figures within the state should be integral to the plans of the contestants vying for the top job in the state.
Poverty rate
A major problem plaguing Nigeria today is the increasing poverty rate. In 2019, NBS reported that Osun state has a poverty headcount ratio of 8.52% — ranking as the 3rd state with lowest poverty headcount. While this is commendable, there are fears that the poverty rate might have increased in recent times considering the fact that the national poverty rate has also climbed up. In 2019, the national poverty headcount was 70%; by 2020 it had increased to 73.22%. This year, the World Bank has said that the number of persons living in poverty in Nigeria will increase to 95.1 million, which is an increase of 6.7% from the 2020 figure.
With the increasing national poverty rate, Osun state may likely experience a corresponding increase in its poverty rate. Therefore, the people of Osun state should be interested in the candidate’s plans to keep the poverty rate in the state low.
Number of Out-of-School Children
According to data from NBS, there are 165,114 out-of-school children in Osun state as of 2018. With this figure, Osun is among the 11 states with the lowest number of out-of-school children in the country. Of this figure, 68.52% are males, and 31.48% are females.
Even though Osun is among the states with the lowest number of out-of-school children in the country, the numbers are still too high. Thus, improving access to education in the state should be a priority for candidates and an issue of interest for the electorates that also include the quality of learning, school infrastructure, and teachers’ welfare.
Ease of Doing Business Ranking
Among other things, one key factor that attracts both local and international investment to a country is the business environment. The latest subnational data on the ease of doing business ranked Osun state 15th out of the 36 states and Federal Capital Territory (FCT). The state scored 5.57 out of a total index score of 10.
The ranking was published in a report by the Presidential Enabling Business Environment Council (PEBEC), in which the 36 states and the FCT were assessed on four thematic areas – Infrastructure and Security, Transparency and Access to Information, Regulatory Environment, and Workforce Readiness.
To further boost the state’s IGR, whoever emerges as winner in the July 16 polls, will have to improve the business environment. This is important in attracting both local and international businesses to the state which in turn will drive the state’s economic growth.
Under-5 Mortality Rate & Access to Health
With respect to health, the indicators in Osun state are quite poor. The under-five mortality rate in the state is estimated at 70 deaths per 1,000 live births. According to a 2020 report by the USAID and Health Policy Plus (HP+), mortality rate in Osun is higher than the average of 62 deaths per 1,000 live births in Lower-Middle-Income Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa.
A second point on health performance in the state has to do with health insurance coverage. Last year, the Executive Secretary of the Osun Health Insurance Agency, Dr. Niyi Oginn, disclosed that only 3.7% of Osun state population is covered in the state’s Health Insurance Scheme (HIS). According to him, the state government has a plan to increase this to 60% in 10 years (2029).
A commitment to reducing the under-five mortality rate and ensuring improved access to healthcare, especially for children, women, and vulnerable groups should be top of mind for the electorates as they cast their votes and decide who will be at the helm of the state’s affairs for the next four years.
To achieve meaningful development in the state, improvement in these indicators are critical and electorates’ voting decisions should be guided by the candidate who presents a plan that would mean advancement for the state on many of these indices.