We noted how the stern and tone deaf presidential response was the match that lit the ongoing demonstrations, which are anything but peaceful. But with over 59 incidents in 26 states, what’s next for the self-acclaimed giant of Africa? To say nothing of the economic implications of losses incurred by protests running up to billions in damages.
Serious security breaches across police stations featuring alleged prison breaks, foiled attempts, and burnt patrol cars; Government and private properties razed, destroying revenue generation channels;Reports estimate over ₦47.12 billion in damages from raids;With a 2021 budget riddled with uncertainty, current events aggravate unfavourable economic conditions for Nigerians in the near future.
Prior to what we addressed as EndSARS loot, following the discovery of COVID-19 palliatives, demonstrations became a tad more intense. Particularly, correctional centres in Edo and Ondo Statefelt the bite of the mobs leading to the alleged escape of over 2000 inmates. And according to reports, timely intervention of security personnel foiled similar attempts at Ikoyi, Lagos.
In the same vein, felons destroyed many police stations, razing vehicles. The magnitude of effect of this destruction on the economy is unfathomable. Likewise, a recent Dataphyte report which noted over 27 razed police stations, with 10 missing AK-rifles, questioned the compounded effect on an already sinking economy, serviced by debt. Not to mention the opportunity cost of repairs which the country would have channelled to other areas of the country. Worse, though, there was also no distinction between government and private property, as raiders plundered indiscriminately.
To this effect, Dataphyte compiled some of these damages outlining property, location and state.
The Rundown
Police Stations
Destroyed Properties
Estimated Losses
Implications on the Economy
Akin to COVID, this new normal shows no signs of dissipating soon.
So far, reports estimate a value of 47.12 billion in damages, excluding inestimable losses. While on a surface level, this creates an obvious economic dent, juxtaposing this reality with the existing pressures of revenue generation in Nigeria tells a sadder tale.
Already, the 2021 budget was fraught with some discrepancies, adding these new challenges spell an uncertain economic future for Nigeria. Most certain, the huge deficit created in the budget will be widened with some revenue channels destroyed.
Earlier this year, Nigeria experienced two consecutive negative GDP quarter reports, per the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). And according to Public Finance Expert, Atiku Samuel, expecting a third was well within reality, given current conditions.
Likewise, because of the ensuing raids, the flow of goods to markets was affected, halting production activities. Furthermore, given the damage to production activities, expect a slow return for domestic trade, Atiku notes.
“People that have looted items will not go to the market to buy things; ergo, those in the market cannot sell their goods.”
Speaking of trade, the Economist further highlighted a seller-buyer conundrum created by the ongoing plundering. So what happens? This means that there will be no cash in circulation. But cash is key in such a contractionary economic period. As a result, the government has fewer economic transactions to tax. More so, little or no transactions will cripple small and medium scale businesses, further crippling the economy.
By and large, 2021 seems uncertain for the Nigerian economy because of security and governance challenges.