If you’re Nigerian, you have probably heard it since you were born, “epileptic power supply”. In 2022 alone, Nigeria has recorded 5 grid collapses as its electricity sector continues to suffer unprecedented challenges.
From the Capital city, Abuja,across all states of the country, the story is the same; the power supply epilepsy is worsening.
In the last five years, between 2018 and 2022, Nigeria has budgeted the sum of N1.6 trillion to the Ministry of power. According to the country’s budget document, the capital allocation to the power sector in 2022 stood at N299 billion representing 97% of the total expenditure for the sector.
Analysis shows that the country has budgeted N1.633 trillion on capital investments in the sector between 2018 and 2022 representing 97% of the total budgeted expenditure in the period under review.
Further review reveals that for instance as at March 2021, the sum N133.927 billion was released for the power sector, to cover capital expenditure from 2020 appropriation year up till March 2021.
Details from the National Bureau of Statistics show that distribution companies of Nigeria have made considerable increases in their revenues between 2015 and 2020. Distribution companies made a total of N2.401 trillion in revenue between 2015 and 2020.
However, despite these investments and increased revenue, Nigerians still suffer persistent blackouts that have worsened considerably in 2022.
Although data shows that electricity generation has mostly increased between 2015 and 2022, the increment is not commensurate with the growth in customer size and so demand for electricity.
For instance between 2015 and 2020, the number of Discos customers (that is users of electricity) increased from 6.99 million to 10.37 million representing a 48% increase. However, electricity supply which as at 2015 was insufficient, only increased by 8%.
This means that despite an increase in generation, the number of GWH available to each customer dropped in relation to customer increase.
As at 2015, the GWH available per customer stood at 0.00290 while the figure for 2020 stood at 0.00212 representing a 26% decline. The increased demands in relation to the pressure of a falling supply could explain in part, the recurrent collapse of the country’s electricity grid.
Implications of Power Sector’s Inadequacies on Nigeria’s Climate Change Policies
Like the rest of the world, Nigeria is looking to transition to cleaner energy sources as captured in its Agenda 2030. The Agenda promises that 30% of the country’s energy supply will be from renewable energy sources by 2030.
However, Nigeria’s ability to generate and distribute renewable energy enough to meet up with its target is in doubt as current power generation and distribution infrastructure is poor. About 43% of the population still don’t have access to on-grid electricity and according to the World Bank, it makes Nigeria the country with the largest energy access deficit in the world.
Gas is Nigeria’s biggest power source, yet it has been unable to provide enough to power its electricity generation companies (GenCos). Nigeria’s largest source of electricity generation, is faced with challenges of maximisation and efficiency. A report noted that Nigeria lost N1.9 billion in 2019 to insufficient gas supply for electricity transmission.
The implication of Nigeria’s inability to power the country impacts on more than its ability to meet its ambitious 30% renewable energy commitment, it also affects other elements of the agenda especially the reduction of carbon emissions.
Aside from gas flaring which contributes significantly to Nigeria’s carbon emissions, the 43% of the population with no access to electricity, depend on carbon-emitting energy sources to generate power such as petrol or diesel generator sets that depend on fossil fuels, as well as firewood.
The diesel generator market in Nigeria is projected to grow by 5-7% between 2021 and 2027. Currently there are disputed figures on how many generating sets are in Nigeria but the figure has ranged between 14 million and 22 million. The noise pollution is massive, generators produce anywhere between 50 dB and 95 dB of noise levels, in a 10 flat compound where each flat has a generator set, that’s noise levels of at least 500 db, far exceeding the harmful noise level band; and that is just 1 compound.
However, beyond the noise pollution is the environmental pollution, 1 litre of diesel produces about 2.68kg of carbon. A 2014 report puts carbon emissions from an estimated 9 million diesel generating sets in Nigeria at about 29 million metric tons of CO2 each year. This figure does not cover petrol generating sets and the number of both types of generators owned in the country have since increased.
Firewood as an energy source not only contributes to emissions but is also a leading cause of deforestation. Deforestation has devastating effects on the environment and biodiversity because simply put, when trees are cut down, it releases stored carbon dioxide and there is nowhere for the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere to go thus increasing the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere. This means that the trees that could trap carbon produced from burning wood have themselves been sacrificed to the carbon gods.
What are the hopes for Nigeria?
Renewable energy holds huge potential for bridging the access to energy deficit and advancing Nigeria’s climate change policies from rhetoric to actionable. The country in its Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan noted that it intends to provide Solar energy to five million households by 2023. A development that if achieved will go a long way in ameliorating Nigeria’s electricity needs.
But, as Mr. Abubakar Aliyu, Nigeria’s Minister of Power said at BETD 2022, “accelerating the energy transition means differently, from country to country..”. According to him, fixing the national grid problems and improving its operational capacity is a critical part of the government’s approach to energy transition.
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