The 2022 Ekiti Governorship election is slated for June 18, 2022, which is about 9 weeks from today. In a statement released by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) on March 14, there are 16 candidates in the race for the governorship position; 14 males and 2 females.
In the 2018 election, there were 35 candidates in total, and they were all male. Data from INEC shows that only 44.36% of the total 909,585 registered voters came out to vote in the last governorship election in the state. Data from INEC on the ongoing continuous voter registration (CVR), shows that an additional 124,797 persons have completed their registration in the state, indicating an increase in the total number of registered voters ahead of the next polls. However, it is not certain if this would translate to a higher voter turnout as there was a drop in the 2018 turnout rate from the 49.12% that was recorded in 2014 to 44.36%.
As the people of Ekiti prepare for the June 18 polls, Dataphyte looks at some important socio-economic indicators in the state that should shape the manifestos and campaign promises of the 16 governorship candidates as they make their case to the people of Ekiti state.
Boosting GDP and IGR
Although the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) does not have a recent figure on this indicator, in 2021, Ekiti state was said to have a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of $2.8 billion (approximately N1.1 trillion). GDP is the total monetary or market value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country’s borders (in this respect, Ekiti state) in a specific time period. Vice President Yemi Osinbajo stated that Ekiti state has a GDP of $2.8 trillion at the Fountain Summit which was held in Ekiti last year. The Vice President also noted that the GDP of the state is bigger than that of the Gambia, Cape Verde, Seychelles, and Sao Tome and Principe.
While this is true, the GDP of the state when compared to other Nigerian states is low. The most recent data on this ranked Ekiti among the top 4 states with the lowest GDP in the country. Also, out of the 6 states in the South-West region, the state has the lowest GDP.
Ekiti’s Internally Generated Revenue (IGR) in 2016 was N2.99 billion which grew annually, and up to N8.72 billion in 2020 — a 191.42% growth from the initial figures in 2016. There has also been an increase in the state’s IGR since the beginning of the Kayode Fayemi-led administration, data from the NBS shows that at half-year of 2021, the state had a total IGR of N6.59 billion.
Despite this growth, Ekiti State was placed among the 6 states with the lowest IGR in the first half of last year.
Moreso, the state’s IGR is relatively low when compared to its fiscal needs. Thus, this makes it heavily reliant on FAAC allocation.
In terms of fiscal performance, Ekiti state also ranks low. Using four indexes, BudgIT ranked Nigeria’s 36 states’ fiscal performance in 2021; the ability of states to meet their operating expenses; ability to meet operating expenses and loan repayment without having to borrow; fiscal power to borrow more given low debt burden vis-à-vis how much is generated in a year and, prioritisation of capital over recurrent expenditures. In the report, Ekiti state was ranked 29 out of the 36 states. This depicts a weak fiscal strength.
The debt profile of the state is also not impressive, the state had a total debt of N123.88 billion in 2020. Between 2016 and 2020, Ekiti state debt grew by 24.63%, making it the 19th most indebted state in Nigeria, according to BudgIT.
The 16 governorship candidates must consider strengthening the State’s fiscal policy, especially the diversification of its economy to increase IGR and reduce borrowings, and the content of their campaign promises should reflect these plans.
Creating Employment
On unemployment, Ekiti state has the highest unemployment rate in the South-West region. According to the latest labour force statistics released by the NBS, the unemployment rate in the state stands at 52.91%. In other words, more than 5 out of every 10 persons in the state are unemployed.
There has been a steady increase in the unemployment rate in the state. In 2017, the unemployment rate in the state was 28.3%. It increased to 34.2% in 2018 and then 52.91% in 2020. The unemployment rate in the state increased by 86.96% within three years.
The agendas of contestants for the state should include clear pathways to improve the unemployment figures.
Reducing Poverty
Perhaps the most important indicator to consider is the state’s poverty headcount ratio, which is largely reflective of the country’s poverty level. The latest data shows that the state has a poverty headcount ratio of 28.04%. Although the state ranked 12th out of the 36 states with the lowest poverty headcount in Nigeria, it, however, has the highest poverty rate in the South-West region.
Yet another key area that the candidates must focus on, their manifestos and the content of their rallies and town hall meetings should emphasise reducing poverty in the state.
Improving Education
Concerning education, according to the data from NBS, there are 50,945 out-of-school children in Ekiti state as of 2018, and the state has the lowest number of out-of-school children in the country.
Candidates should show the people a plan that not only improves access to education, but improves other crucial indicators such as the quality of learning, school infrastructure, and teachers’ welfare. The state’s out-of-school numbers should continue to reduce and that is an agenda voters should look out for in candidate’s sales pitches.
Boosting Ease of Doing Business Indices
On ease of doing business, Ekiti ranks 18th out of the 36 states and Federal Capital Territory (FCT), scoring 5.35 out of a total index score of 10. This ranking is based on the Ease of Doing Business survey conducted by the Presidential Enabling Business Environment Council (PEBEC). The 36 states and FCT were assessed on four thematic areas – Infrastructure and Security, Transparency and Access to Information, Regulatory Environment, and Workforce Readiness.
Improving the business environment in the state is key to attracting both local and international investment needed for economic growth and should be a key point of call for any candidate aiming to earn the people’s votes in the June 18 polls and sit in the highest office of the land.
Better Maternal and Child Health
In child mortality, Ekiti state has the highest record among states in the Southwest. According to the NBS 2020 Women and Men report, Ekiti has a child mortality rate of 40 per 1,000 live births. The World Health Organisation (WHO) outlined 6 solutions to preventing child mortality which include improved access to water and sanitation, immunisations, among others.
Improved maternal and child outcomes is a useful promise that the 16 candidates should prioritise in their agenda for the people of the state, particularly for the women and children.
While these socio-economic indicators are inexhaustive, they should form a part of governorship candidates’ agenda for Ekiti state and its people; but more important is that the people will cast their votes with these in mind as they head to the polls on June 18.