Since Nigeria returned of democracy in 1999, its elections have been tainted with all forms of violence, with same trend leading up to the 2023 general elections.
Just this year alone, data from the Nigeria Security Tracker (NST) show that at least 14 cases of election-related violence resulting to the death 9 persons have been recorded.
Even the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) have had to warn that widespread violence and insecurity could ultimately result in the cancellation and/or postponing of the polls if not monitored and handled properly.
History of election-related violence
The run-up to Nigeria’s general elections has been violent, with campaigns in many areas beset by political killings, bombings and armed clashes among supporters of rival political factions.
In 1999, the election that brought Olusegun Obasanjo to power was mired by post-election violence following allegations of fraud. The violence was reported to have claimed the life of 80 persons.
Widespread pre- and post-election violence tainted the 2023 elections in the form of thuggery, vandalism, gun violence and riots. It is estimated that 400 persons died.
Four years later, election observers from the European Union described the 2007 elections, which brought Umaru Musa Yar’Adua to power, as among the worst they had witnessed anywhere in the world. According to the Human Rights Watch (HRW), at least 300 people were killed in violence linked to the elections.
The 2011 post-election and communal violence in 12 northern states left at least 800 people dead. This is adjudged to be the worst case so far in the history of Nigeria elections.
Trend of election violence (2015-2023)
According to data analysed from the NST, there were 333 fatalities in 307 incidents of election-related violence nationwide from 2015 to February 12, 2023. In the same time frame, 52 other people were abducted, the majority of whom were INEC staff.
Further analysis of the data reveals that general elections in 2015 and 2019 had the largest numbers in terms of electoral violence and fatalities.
In states like Anambra, Bayelsa, Edo, Ekiti, Imo, Kogi, Ondo, and Osun, off-cycle elections were held, and violent incidents at these times were documented.
According to a state-by-state analysis, the two wealthy states in terms of internally generated income (IGR), Rivers and Lagos, with 56 and 44 respectively, are at top of the list of states with the most fatalities. Taraba is next, with 21 fatalities, followed by Bayelsa and Delta, each with 20.
Rivers and Lagos once more led the list of states with the highest number of incidents, followed by Ondo, Osun, and Kogi. The most abduction victims were reported in Katsina, followed by Imo, Enugu, Kogi, and Sokoto.
In recent years, attacks on INEC institutions across the nation have grown, adding another dimension to electoral violence.
The commission said last year that, from 2019 and May 24, 2021, 41 attacks on its offices in 14 states took place. They included 20 instances of vandalism, 18 instances of arson, and three cases of both.
INEC had attributed 18 of the occurrences to End-SARS protesters, 11 to “unknown gunmen” and hoodlums, six to election-related thuggery, and the remaining to bandits, Boko Haram insurgents.
Most of the incidents occurred in the South-East and South-West regions of the nation. Imo had seven cases, Osun had six, Akwa-Ibom had five, Abia had four, and Cross River had two. The remaining ones came from Anambra, Bayelsa, Borno, Ebonyi, Enugu, Kaduna, Lagos, Ondo, and Taraba, among others.
A security expert and former Director of the State Security Service (SSS), Mike Ejiofor, had previously issued a warning that should the trend of election-related violence continue, there might be post-election violence.
“At the end of the day, my fear again is that there might be post-election violence if the result doesn’t go the way some people want and also during the election,” Ejiofor warned.
Experts claim that attacks against INEC infrastructure are the most recent in a long line of violent acts, and they push the level of insecurity in the nation into an unknown territory.
“Historically, as we an approach election cycle, there is always heightened violence in the country. What has now changed is we now have heightened attacks on INEC infrastructure. We have not seen this dimension before,” Dakar-based analyst at the Institute of Security Studies Africa, Oluwole Ojewale, told Al Jazeera.
Traditionally, Nigeria’s elections have often been characterised by widespread voter apathy. In 2019, only a 34 percent (28.6 million total votes cast) of registered voters (84 million) participated in the elections and analysts reckon insecurity could lead to a similar turnout this year, or worse.
INEC’s admission that the election could be cancelled or postponed if security guarantees cannot be met has led to mounting concerns about looming political and security implications.
“The biggest issue will be providing an apt justification to a situation that everyone has been aware of since INEC announced the electoral timetable,” said a research analyst at the Centre for Democracy and Development in Abuja, Afolabi Adekaiyaoja.
“Any postponement will need to be followed with the relevant assurance that the time for the delay will result in tangible progress and these are guarantees that can’t necessarily be met,” he added.
Last Friday, unidentified gunmen ambushed and killed three members of the security team of the vice presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Governor Ifeanyi Okowa,In another incident, one person was killed and five arrested after a violent clash erupted between supporters of the PDP and the ruling All Progressive Congress (APC) during a campaign rally in northern Jigawa state.Just last Saturday, many supporters of the Labour Party were attacked and injured by thugs on their way to a rally in Lagos, a stronghold of the APC presidential candidate, Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
The Director of the Centre for Democracy and Development and spokesperson for the National Peace Committee, Idayat Hassan, expressed concern about the rising attacks at political events and demanded that authorities forbid anyone—aside security personnel—from bringing weapons to political rallies.