Kogi November Elections: 3 in every 5 registered voters may not vote

Nigerians elect their federal and state leaders every four years, whether in a general or off-cycle election. While the 2023 presidential and governorship elections were held a few months ago, three states are set to conduct their governorship election in November this year. 

Kogi State is among these three states that will hold their governorship election on November 11. A major concern as the people of Kogi head to the poll is the likelihood of abysmal low voter turnout because data shows that only 2 out of every 5 registered voters in the state eventually vote in the state guber election. 

This trend is not just seen in the state’s governorship elections but also in the general elections, Dataphyte’s analysis shows.

Kogi State was created on August 27, 1991, by the then regime of General Ibrahim Babangida. The state was carved out of Benue and Kwara States. 

Since Nigeria’s return to democratic rule in 1999, Kogi State has conducted 6 governorship elections. The state’s 7th governorship election will hold in about 5 months’ time. 

READ ALSO: Below 50% voter turnout expected as Imo people head to polls in November

According to the final list released by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), 18 candidates are vying for the governorship position in the November election. 17 of the candidates are male, while one is female. The female candidate is Suleiman Taiye Fatima of the Zenith Labour Party (ZLP).

Out of the candidates, the candidates of the All Peoples Party (APP) and New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) are the youngest. They are both 35 years old. While the candidate of the Action Democratic Party is the oldest in the race. He is 77 years old. 

While these 18 candidates prepare to battle it out on November 11, the level of voter participation in the state, especially in the last three elections, is concerning.

The data gathered by Dataphyte indicates high voter apathy in the state. 

In the 2011 governorship election, the state had 1.33 million registered voters. But on election day, only 518,949 persons voted, representing a meagre 39% voter turnout.

Voter turnout refers to the percentage of registered voters who cast their vote on the election day. That is, the share of the total votes cast over the total number of registered voters in every hundred people. 

In 2015, the number of registered voters increased by 4% from 1.33 million to 1.38 million. However, voter turnout declined by 2% point from 39% to 37%. And only 2 out of every 5 persons who registered to vote actually voted in the 2015 state’s governorship 2015 election. That is, 3 out of every 5 persons who registered to vote did not eventually vote.

The registered voters in the 2019 election stood at 1.65 million, a 19% increase from the previous election. Out of the 1.65 million registered voters, more than a million did not cast their vote. Only 624,514 people cast their vote, representing only 38% voter turnout. This means that 2 out of every 5 registered voters voted in the election. 

Interestingly, this voter apathy in the state extends to the presidential elections. In fact, the level of voter turnout during the general elections was lower. 

An analysis of the data from INEC shows that Kogi State recorded only 33% voter turnout in the 2015 general election. This increased slightly in the 2019 election.

But in the 2023 general election, voter turnout dropped to 25%, the lowest in the period under review. Out of 1.65 million registered voters, only 476,038 persons voted. This means that only 1 in every 4 registered voters in the state voted in the last presidential election. This implies too that 3 in every 4 registered voters in Kogi State did not vote in the last presidential election.

In an article by Hycent Ajah, he highlighted inadequate voter education, inefficiencies of voter registration and the voting process, electoral fraud and rigging, and electoral violence, as some of the major factors causing voter apathy in Nigeria. The government’s failure and uninspiring politicians were also listed as one of the factors for the disinterest of the citizens in the electoral process. “Bad governance and uninspiring politicians also encourage voter apathy,” Hycent Ajah said. 

These issues are not particularly uncommon in Nigeria elections, be it general or off-cycle election. They have also manifested in Kogi States governorship elections. 

The Situation Room, in its report on Kogi State 2019 governorship election, particularly connected the low voter turnout recorded to the violence that pervaded the pre-election atmosphere.

While low voter turnout does not take away the fact that it is still a democratic election, high voter turnout is, however, considered a mark of a thriving democracy. Thus, as the people of Kogi State head to the poll on November 11, it is important for the electoral body and other elections stakeholders to pay close attention to the issues that have been highlighted as major factors causing voter apathy, especially for Kogi State which has consistently recorded low voter turnout in its previous elections. 

This is crucial because, as Hycent Ajah posited in his article, the lack of participation by a significant number of citizens in the voting process raises concerns about the legitimacy of the election and the ability to select competent individuals for public office.