Environmental experts often argue that climate change is the major cause of farmer-herder crisis in Nigeria. They say that desertification and soil degradation in the northern part of Nigeria are forcing Fulani herders into changing their transhumance routes, pushing them to the Middle Belt and the South where they move with their cows in search of pasture and water.
The situation has led to thousands of deaths, with herdsmen often blamed.
More than 1,531 deaths were caused by farmer-herder conflicts and insurgency in Nigeria in 2020, according to the Amnesty International. A 2021 study conducted by a research development and policy firm, Zinariya Consults, said over 300,000 Nigerians were displaced, with 1,868 deaths recorded in four states between 2018 and early 2021 due to clashes between farmers and herders in Nigeria.
Recent researches have, however, found that climate change may not be blamed for desertification and soil degradation or farmer-herder crisis, though they also admit that it has changed the herders’ migratory pattern.
Using an econometric model (regression analysis) to examine the link between farmer-herder crisis and climate change, Joseph Denwi, as well as Ufuoma, Endurance and Oghale Ofieroho found no connection whatsoever.
The graphical regression analysis, unit root test, bound test, autoregressive-distributed lag short and long run test were conducted to discover if any correlation or relationship existed. Internal conflict index (dependent variable) was used as index of herdsmen/farmers clashes, while desertification was captured in the model using primary tree loss, among others.
“From the result of the study, no evidence of significant relationship exists between internal conflicts and desertification in Nigeria. In line with this, the study concludes that internal conflicts in Nigeria is not attributable to climate change, the authors said, arguing that proponents of climate change impact on farmer-herder crisis should begin to think twice.
They were not the only ones in this class. Researcher Daniel Johnson, in one of his works, noted that rather than blame farmer-herder crisis on climate change, people must consider issues such as threat of dominance, ethnicity, injustice, religion, and incompatibility.
However, are statistical models sufficient to draw a fool-proof conclusion on a critical issue like this?
Researchers Gospel Lebari, Ferguson Onuegbu and Sunday Adeniran disagree, arguing that there is clearly a nexus between climate change and farmer-herder crisis.
In their scientific research, the authors found that climate change played a significant role in the frequent violent conflicts that had become common in farmer-herders relations in recent years.
Other researchers also found that climate change was responsible for most farmer-herder clashes in Nigeria.
Global bodies see the nexus
Global bodies believe strongly that there is no argument as to whether climate change fuels farmer-herder crisis in Africa’s most populous nation.
In 2021, the Organization for World Peace explained the links between climate change and farmer-herder clashes in the country, noting that “as the banks of the Chad Basin continue to recede and degrade, so too does Nigeria’s fragile internal security situation.”
“While Nigeria has certainly not been left untouched by the terrorist cells sweeping Africa’s Sahel region with increasing momentum, the country’s ongoing farmer-herder conflict remains Nigeria’s most acute security issue, a conflict now ranked six times more deadly than the Boko Haram Insurgency with no signs of abating. While political ethnic and cultural factors have affected this dispute singularly, this conflict’s rootedness in climate change appears unique. Leading social scientists have described this climate change as a ‘threat multiplier’ due to the way in which it has exacerbated pre-existing problems within the region, a theory currently playing out across Nigeria with deadly force.”
Another organisation, the Crisis Group, said that the rising temperatures and erratic rainfall had intensified resource competition between farmers and herders, both shifting traditional migratory patterns and exacerbating intercommunal violence.
Blood, tears and more blood
Several states have been hard hit by the farmer-herder clashes. Benue is one of the most affected states with staggering numbers of fatalities. The Benue State Emergency Agency said 5,138 farmers were killed by herders between 2015 and 2022. Highest fatalities (2,131) occurred in 2021 while the least (43) took place in 2017.
A report said more than 4,000 persons were killed by herders in the South-West region of Nigeria between 2015 and 2021.
More than 100 Nigerians were killed in Plateau State in April this year, according to France 24. Thousands of deaths have occurred in all parts of the country, particularly in central Nigeria where tussle for pasture and water is fiercest.
Way forward
Researchers say the conflict can be solved through “managed grazing by the pastoralists and regenerative agriculture by the farmers.” Managed grazing means controlling where and when livestock species graze an area of land, according to Pennsylvania State University. On the other hand, regenerative agriculture is the branch of agriculture that aims to improve soil health and soil fertility while protecting water resources and biodiversity, according to Nestle.
The Nigerian government has proposed ranching as the way forward. Ranching is generally seen in Nigeria as keeping all the animals in a particular location, rather than moving them from place to place. A number of experts believe it is a global best practice which herders must adopt.
However, in a recent interview, the Chief Executive Officer of FrieslandCampina WAMCO, Mr Ben Langat, said ranching was often misunderstood in Nigeria.
“The definition of ranching in this country is a bit misunderstood. Ranching involves using huge portions of farmlands to rear many cows typically for beef. Smallholder or large-scale dairy farms are normally also large farms but you find that the cows are in a confined location. In ranches, the cows roam. In dairy production, the cows however are in large numbers similar to what you see in the Middle East, for example, the Almarai Farms. In Pakistan, we have a farm that has about 7,000 cows in one location, in very long dormitory-like structures. That is a large-scale dairy farm.”
This report was produced in fulfillment of the UNESCO & CIJ London Climate Change in News Media project facilitated by the Centre for Journalism Innovation and Development.