Matchday 4: Team Statistics & Predictions

Welcome to EPL matchday four and the last game before the first international break of the season.  The last three weeks of the English Premier League (EPL) produced 103 match goals. And while matchday four’s pairings don’t scream many goals, it makes for an interesting lineup with endless possibilities.

• Look out for a crystal palace win or draw against Chelsea;
• Expect a harvest of goals at Elland Road  plus Leeds win or draw;  
• Leciseter to top the table going into the first international break of the season;
• Expect Patrick Bamford to score anytime against City;
• Likewise, stats show a likelihood of both teams scoring in at least three of matchday 3 fixtures.

To keep you informed ahead of a relaxed viewing, DATAPHYTE reviewed team statistics and predicted outcomes from all the EPL matchday four fixtures. 

Saturday 3 October 2020  

Chelsea VS Crystal Palace, 12:30 pm 

On paper, Chelsea are understandably favourites to win when they host Crystal Palace in the early kick-off of matchday 4. In this meeting, Chelsea will hope to continue their winning form against Crystal Palace having won each of the clubs’ last premier league meetings. 

However, Chelsea’s deficiency in the defence might prove detrimental to this course. Since the beginning of the season, Chelsea has failed to keep a clean sheet. More so, West Brom, last weekend, exposed Chelsea’s defence woes with a three goal victory lead in the first 45 minutes.

Chelsea’s defence woes will be good news for Crystal Palace who have a quartet of counter-attacking players in Andros Townsend, Wilfried Zaha, Jeff Schlupp, and Jordan Ayew. They would hope to exploit Chelsea’s defensive weakness from deep positions. 

Both teams have maintained a 100 percent scoring form since the beginning of the season, we look forward to seeing a Crystal Palace win or draw,  both teams score and over 2.5 goals in this encounter. 

Everton  VS Brighton, 3:00 pm  

Everton’s stunning start to the 2020/2021 season is likely to continue when they take on Brighton at the Goodison Park. Everton looks to ace their seventh straight win across all competition this season in this encounter.  

For Brighton, they would hope to win this match to forget the two successive defeats suffered at the hands of Manchester United in less than seven days. Despite hitting the woodwork five times and notching a 94th-minute equalizer, Brighton still lost 3-2 after Bruno Fernandes’ dramatic penalty at the death last weekend. And while they were reeling from that loss, Manchester United knocked Brighton out of the Carabao cup in the mid-week with three unreplied goals. 

Last season both Everton and Brighton won in their respective homes in a similar fixture. 

Going by Everton’s tremendous form so far this season and Brighton’s 100% scoring form in the Premier League fixtures this term, we expect Everton to win and both teams to score.  The player to watch out for is Dominic Calvert-Lewin. 

Leeds VS Manchester City, 5:30 pm 

Guardiola and his team Manchester City will pay a visit to his managerial idol, Marcelo Bielsa at Elland Road in the third fixture of match day 4. It is by no means going to be a courtesy visit as Manchester City and Bielsa’s high flying Leeds will play for a maximum of three points.  

After seeing a low scoring Leeds side last weekend, we expect to see plenty of goals when Leeds play Man City whose last seven top matches produced three goals or more. Leeds’ offensive is impressive, netting 8 goals in their last three outings. 

Conversely, Manchester City notorious for unapologetic goals in their numbers have added not being shy in conceding goals to their recent statistics. 

Based on the reviewed statistics and considering that Manchester City has conceded in four of their last six away games, we predict both teams to score and over 2.5 goals. The player to watch for is Patrick Bamford of Leeds. 

Newcastle VS Burnley, 8:00 pm

Burnley desperately needs a positive upturn when they visit Saint James Park. 

On the other hand, Newcastle has so far gotten 4 points from a possible 9. They secured a 0-2 win against Westham and drew 1-1 with Tottenham last weekend. And despite an unsatisfactory performance, goalkeeping heroics of Karl Darlow and a 96th-minute penalty saw them through.

The last three meetings between Newcastle and Burnley have ended in under 2.5 goals. Therefore, we predict that this meeting will also end in an under 2.5 goals. 

Sunday 4th October 2020: Fixtures 

Leicester City  VS Westham United, 12:00 pm

Both Leicester and Westham produced proper football on EPL matchday 3 fixtures. On the one hand, Leicester City thrashed league favourites, Manchester City away from home. 

In similar fashion, Westham surprised everyone with a 4 goal lead over Wolves, who couldn’t respond. This puts both teams, Leicester and Westham in excellent form, spurring on confidence going into this game. However, it is unlikely to see Westham overcome the stunning early season momentum of Leicester. 

In a similar fixture last season, Leicester got the better of Westham by winning 4-1 at home and 1-2 in Westham’s home. Based on these statistics, we expect a Leicester win and over 2.5 goals. The player to watch out for is Jamie Vardy.

Southampton  VS Westbrom 12:00 pm

Southampton and West Brom put their first EPL 2020/2021 points on the board last weekend after successive defeats in the two previous outings. They, however, did this in alternate fashions. Southampton for one earned its whole three points against Burnley last week. In contrast, West Brom lost a three goal lead to settle for one point against Chelsea.  

With the 3-3 draw against Chelsea last weekend, West Brom has conceded the highest number of goals (11) so far this season. It is likely that their leaky defence might be their downfall this weekend. In each of West Brom’s premier league outings so far, we have seen over 2.5 goals; we expect to see the same in this fixture too.  

Arsenal VS Sheffield United, 2:00 pm

Arsenal and Sheffield United go into this game in search of a win to make up for their loss last weekend. Still, Sheffield has it worse. They have failed to get a point since the season premier, losing three of their EPL games this season: 0-2 to Wolves in the season opener; 1- 0 to Aston Villa in matchday 2 and 0-1 to Leeds last weekend. 

Arsenal lost to defending champions Liverpool last weekend and would be desperate to get back to its winning ways. 

Be that as it may, Sheffield United got the better of Arsenal in this fixture last season. They won 1-0 at home and drew 1-1 to Arsenal; but that was last season. This season, judging by the current form of both teams, it is likely Arsenal comes out on top with under 2.5 goals.

Manchester United VS Tottenham Hotspur, 4:30 pm

Manchester United and Tottenham have both had an unconvincing start to the EPL season. Both teams showed a lot of defensive frailties from their recent performances; both teams also failed to keep a clean sheet. 

However, Manchester United won Brighton, albeit by a hair. In what critics are calling “new cheat level,” United were awarded a penalty after full time. This moved up what would have been a tie to a 2-3 victory.  Likewise, Tottenham suffered the same fate as Brighton to settle for a 1-1 draw with Newcastle after the referee awarded Newcastle a 97th minute penalty. 

To be honest, this fixture is one neither Manchester United nor Tottenham will be confident of winning. Still, Manchester United have been the better team in their last two meetings, winning  2-1 and drawing the other 1-1. Going by the leaky defence of both teams and their tendency to score in each game, we predict both teams to score in this fixture.

Aston Villa VS Liverpool, 7:15 pm

Fan favourite Liverpool means business and has every intention of retaining the EPL title. This much was clear from their 3-1 victory at home to a rejuvenated Arsenal last weekend. A visit to Villa park is more likely to be a walk in the park for Liverpool as against Arsenal. 

Still, don’t count Aston Villa out just yet. They gave Fulham a proper thrashing-0 to 3- last weekend to make it 6 points out of 6 on the board. However, the bigger test comes when they host Liverpool.

Based on statistics, we surmise Aston Villa will not get a point from this game.  Liverpool were the better team in a similar fixture last season, winning 2-0 at home and 1-2 at villa park. Hence, we should see Liverpool return home with all three points in this fixture.  

Predictions for EPL: Matchday 4